[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221227 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 17.6N 65.6W at 22/0900 UTC
or about 50 miles S of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving W at 18 kt.
Estimated central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted within 130 nm in the NW quadrant, 60
nm in the NE quadrant, and 90 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered
showers are noted in the SW quadrant. Seas are 12 feet within 30
nm in the NW quadrant, 90 nm in the NE quadrant and 30 nm in the
SE quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, near
or over Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this
afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sun and Sun
night. Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sun. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and
the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the
Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could
lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased
potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto
Rico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Marco is centered near 19.6N 85.4W at 22/0900 UTC
or about 110 miles E of Cozumel, Mexico moving NNW at 10 kt.
Estimated central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 230 nm in the northern semicircle. Seas are
12 feet within 30 nm of the NE quadrant. Marco is forecast to
turm toward the northwest on Sun, followed by a turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast
track, the center of Marco will approach the eastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today.  The center will approach
the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening
and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern
Gulf on Sun and Mon followed by a track toward the northwestern
Gulf coast on Tue.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean has an axis along 23W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. This
disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde
Islands today and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves across the
eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become
less favorable for development. There is a low chance of formation
through the next 48 hours and 5 days. Please refer to the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 64W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the axis from 10N-14N between 62W-64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 73W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted across Haiti from 17N-20N between 72W-74W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 12N24W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N
between 27W-39W. Scattered thunderstorms are north of the ITCZ
from 08N-10N between 45W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Laura and Tropical Storm Marco.

A stationary front is draped across the southeast U.S. into the
southern Plains. Scattered moderate convection is noted near New
Orleans, LA. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across
the eastern half of the Gulf, N of 23N and E of 90W. Gentle
winds prevail across most of the Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less
across the offshore forecast waters.

Tropical Storm Marco is forecast to gradually intensify as it
moves to just east of the northeastern tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula near 20.9N 86.1W this afternoon, to over the extreme
southern Gulf of Mexico near 22.5N 87.1W late tonight with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, to the south-central Gulf
of Mexico near 24.1N 88.3W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained
winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Marco will strengthen a little more as it
reaches near 25.7N 89.9W late Sun night with maximum sustained
winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, and begin to weaken as it reaches near
27.3N 91.3W Mon afternoon. Marco is forecast to continue to weaken
as it nears 28.3N 93.4W late Mon night and to inland Texas near
29.1N 96.2W late by Tue night.

Tropical Storm Laura over the Tropical Atlantic is forecast to
enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 23.8N 83.3W Mon
evening with maximum winds 55 kt gusts to 65 kt. Laura is
forecast to strengthen to a hurricane over the central Gulf of
Mexico near 26.5N 87.7W Tue evening, reach to near 29.2N 90.2W
Wed evening and move inland Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Laura and Tropical Storm Marco.

Aside from convection associated with Marco, Laura, and tropical
waves, scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Mona
Passage. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and near
the monsoon trough from 09N to 13N between 74W-79W. Light to
gentle trades are seen across most of the Caribbean with
moderate trades north of Colombia. Seas range 3 to 6 ft outside
of Marco.

Tropical Storm Laura will move to near 17.6N 65.9W Sat
morning, inland over the eastern part of the Dominican Republic
near 18.4N 69.3W Sat evening, inland Haiti near 19.5N 72.8W Sun
morning, inland eastern Cuba near 20.8N 76.4W with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt, inland  central Cuba near
22.1N 80.1W Mon morning, then to over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico near 23.8N 83.3W Mon evening with maximum winds 55 kt gusts
to 65 kt. Laura is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane over the
central Gulf of Mexico near 26.5N 87.7W Tue evening.

Tropical Storm Marco will gradually intensify as it moves to just
east of the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula near 20.9N
86.1W this afternoon, to over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico
near 22.5N 87.1W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts to 60 kt, to the south-central Gulf of Mexico near 24.1N
88.3W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65
kt. Marco will strengthen a little more as it reaches near 25.7N
89.9W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75
kt, and begin to weaken as it reaches near 27.3N 91.3W Mon
afternoon. Marco is forecast to continue to weaken as it nears
28.3N 93.4W late Mon night and to inland Texas near 29.1N 96.2W
late by Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Florida,
N of 27N and W of 78W. A trough extends across the east-central
Atlantic from 31N33W to 28N41W. A dying stationary front extends
from 31N20W to 23N35W. No significant convection is associated
with these features. Ridging stretches across the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N52W. Light to gentle
winds are noted across the basin with moderate winds in parts
of the eastern and central Atlantic. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are seen over the Canary Islands. Seas range 4-6 ft
outside of TS Laura.

Tropical Storm Laura will move to near 18.2N 67.7W this
afternoon, inland over the Dominican Republic near 19.1N 71.0W
late tonight, inland eastern Cuba near 20.3N 74.6W Sun afternoon
with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt, inland Cuba
near 21.6N 78.3W late Sun night, inland western Cuba near 23.1N
81.8W Mon afternoon, then move over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico near 24.6N 84.7W late Mon night with maximum winds 55 kt
gusts to 65 kt.

$$
Aguirre
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