[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 17.0N 60.2W at 21/1500 UTC
or 182 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving W at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N-21N
between 57W-64W. A generally west-northwestward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or
over the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or over
Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of
Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 16.6N 84.1W at
21/1500 UTC or 143 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras moving NW at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N-22N between
79W-86W. A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The
center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf
of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa has an axis along 20W
south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N-17N between 17W-23W. This
wave is expected to move farther offshore over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic today. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development over the next few days, and the system
could become a tropical depression before environmental
conditions become less favorable for development early next week.
Regardless of development it will likely bring gusty winds
across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend, as well
as heavy rains that could cause flooding. This system has a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 69W south of
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near
14N18W to 08N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to
to the coast of Suriname near 06N56W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-10N between 24W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression Fourteen.

A stationary front remains draped along the north-central Gulf
Coast today. Scattered thunderstorms are noted near this
boundary over the coastal waters of Louisiana. in addition,
widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
E of 87W to include Florida. Gentle winds prevail across the
basin, with some moderate winds over the NE Gulf and near
the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 3 ft or less across the
offshore waters.

Tropical Storm Laura is near 17.0N 60.2W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Laura will move to 17.4N 62.7W this evening, 18.3N 66.0W Sat
morning, 19.2N 69.5W Sat evening, 20.2N 73.4W Sun morning, 21.6N
77.1W Sun evening, and 23.2N 80.7W Mon morning. Laura will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 85.5W by early Tue.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is near 16.6N 84.1W 1008 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N
85.0W this evening, move to 18.6N 85.9W Sat morning, 20.0N 86.9W
Sat evening, inland to 21.5N 88.2W Sun morning, 23.2N 89.7W Sun
evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25.1N 91.4W Mon
morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.7N
94.1W by early Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Depression Fourteen.

Scatterometer data shows moderate trades over the south-central
Caribbean, with locally fresh winds near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere outside of
T.D. Fourteen, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
basin.

Tropical Storm Laura is near 17.0N 60.2W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Laura will move to 17.4N 62.7W this evening, 18.3N 66.0W Sat
morning, 19.2N 69.5W Sat evening, 20.2N 73.4W Sun morning, 21.6N
77.1W Sun evening, and 23.2N 80.7W Mon morning. Laura will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 85.5W by early Tue.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is near 16.6N 84.1W 1008 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N
85.0W this evening, move to 18.6N 85.9W Sat morning, 20.0N 86.9W
Sat evening, inland to 21.5N 88.2W Sun morning, 23.2N 89.7W Sun
evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25.1N 91.4W Mon
morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.7N
94.1W by early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Laura.

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 30N51W. A stationary
front is over the E Atlantic from 31N18W to 22N34W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front.

Tropical Storm Laura is near 17.0N 60.2W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Laura will move to 17.4N 62.7W this evening, 18.3N 66.0W Sat
morning, 19.2N 69.5W Sat evening, 20.2N 73.4W Sun morning, 21.6N
77.1W Sun evening, and 23.2N 80.7W Mon morning. Laura will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 85.5W by early Tue.

$$

FORMOSA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net