[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 211139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 84.2 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning.
A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected by this afternoon and is forecast to continue through at
least Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of the system will
move near or just offshore the coast of northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  The center is then expected to
cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the
south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today.  The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.  Some
weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday
night.  Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves
offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of
northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning
area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  These conditions will spread westward along
the coast of Honduras within the warning area today.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.  This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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