[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 17.3N 56.4W at
21/0300 UTC or about 340 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands
moving ESE at 20 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the northern
semicircle and within 200 nm of the southern semicircle. Seas are
up to 9 ft near the center. On the forecast track, the depression
is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands
by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 14.9N 82.2W at
21/0300 UTC or about 55 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua and Honduras border moving WNW at 12 kt. The estimated
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 140 nm of the northern semicircle with scattered showers
within 100 nm of the southern semicircle. Some of the convective
activity is moving inland along the Honduras and Nicaragua coast.
Seas are up to 9 ft near the center. On the forecast track, the
center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of
northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay
Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to
cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the
south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system is expected to
enhance rainfall over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico through the weekend, which may result in some areas of
significant flash flooding. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPATA.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the Africa coast has an axis along 18W from
18N southward, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted along the northern portion of the wave
along the Senegal coast near the area of the monsoon trough.
Showers are within 50 nm of the wave. This wave is expected to
move offshore over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday,
and could become a tropical depression within the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable for development early next week.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring gusty
winds and heavy rains across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
this weekend. This wave has a low chance of formation in the next
48 hours but a medium chance of development within 5 days. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 58W from 21N
southward, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the wave and T.D. Thirteen, from 15N-19N between
57W-60W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 66W from 21N
southward, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted across Puerto Rico and moving into the Mona Passage, from
16N-20N between 64W-68W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W to 10N24W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 14N54W to
the coast of Venezuela near 09N62W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is along and south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N
between 22W-42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is near T.D. Thirteen and the ITCZ. See the Special Features
section for more information.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped right along the coast of western
Louisiana into east Texas. A weak surface trough extends across
the Gulf from 26N91W to 21N93W. Scattered moderate showers and
thunderstorms continue across the eastern Gulf, N of 22N and E of
90W. Light to gentle winds prevail with seas 3-4 ft in the north-
central Gulf.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 17.9N 59.1W Fri
morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 62.4W Fri
evening, 19.4N 65.7W Sat morning, 20.3N 69.2W Sat evening, 21.3N
72.8W Sun morning, and 22.6N 76.4W Sun evening. Thirteen will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 82.5W late Mon.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 15.5N 83.8W Fri morning, move to 16.8N 85.1W Fri evening,
18.2N 86.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.8N
87.2W Sat evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
21.4N 88.5W Sun morning, and 23.2N 89.8W Sun evening. Fourteen
will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.7N 92.3W late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above discussion in Special Features for information on T.D.
Fourteen.

Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough
north of Colombia, S of 14N between 73W-77W. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring along and south of Cuba, N of 19N
between 80W-85W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across most of
the Caribbean with light winds in the SW basin. Seas range 3-6 ft
across the basin, with 9 ft near T.D. Fourteen.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 17.9N 59.1W Fri
morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 62.4W Fri
evening, 19.4N 65.7W Sat morning, 20.3N 69.2W Sat evening, 21.3N
72.8W Sun morning, and 22.6N 76.4W Sun evening. Thirteen will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 82.5W late Mon.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 15.5N 83.8W Fri morning, move to 16.8N 85.1W Fri evening,
18.2N 86.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.8N
87.2W Sat evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
21.4N 88.5W Sun morning, and 23.2N 89.8W Sun evening. Fourteen
will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.7N 92.3W late Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above discussion in Special Features regarding Tropical
Depression Thirteen.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters
east of Florida and the northern Bahamas, N of 26N and W of 75W. A
weak cold front continues to drop southward across the central
and eastern Atlantic, stretching from 31N22W to 25N29W to 25N40W.
Showers are noted along the boundary. Ridging continues to span
across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N53W. Light
winds are near the center of the high, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the Western
Sahara coast. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near T.D.
Thirteen.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 17.9N 59.1W Fri
morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.6N 62.4W Fri
evening, 19.4N 65.7W Sat morning, 20.3N 69.2W Sat evening, 21.3N
72.8W Sun morning, and 22.6N 76.4W Sun evening. Thirteen will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 82.5W late Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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