[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 82.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through
Friday morning.  A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in
forward speed is expected by Friday afternoon and continuing through
at least Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of the system
will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and
northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and
approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on
Saturday.  The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan
Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The
system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of
northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning
area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.  These conditions will spread westward along
the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on
Friday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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