[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from the border
area of the Dominican Republic and Haiti in Hispaniola,
southward. The wave is moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely
scattered strong is within 135 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 17N southward, and between SW Haiti and eastern
sections of Jamaica. Gusty winds also are accompanying the
precipitation. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next day or so, while it moves westward
about 15 to 20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. The
wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward. It is
likely that a tropical depression may  form late this week or
during the weekend, when the system reaches the northwestern
corner of the Caribbean Sea. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone is medium.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N44W, about 1000 nm to
the east of the Windward Islands. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong in clusters is within 180 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant, and from 09N to 12N between the low pressure
center and 53W. Environmental conditions are conducive for more
development. A tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two, while the system moves generally
west-northwestward 15 to 20 mph, across the central and western
sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is related to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from the border
area of the Dominican Republic and Haiti in Hispaniola,
southward. The wave is moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely
scattered strong is within 135 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 17N southward, and between SW Haiti and eastern
sections of Jamaica. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between
74W in Colombia, and beyond Panama and Costa Rica.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is in clusters from 13N between 75W and parts of
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 15N30W and 13N35W. The ITCZ is along 09N/10N,
from 50W to 61W at the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N from
20W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire area, with a
central Gulf of Mexico upper level trough. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the area from 22N
northward, including in parts of Florida.

Weak high pressure across the basin will maintain generally
tranquil conditions in the Gulf of Mexico through the rest of
the week. Low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea has a high
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone by this weekend.
This system is expected to approach the Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel on Saturday. It is possible that this feature
may emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from the border area of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti in Hispaniola, southward. The wave
is moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is
within 135 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N
southward, and between SW Haiti and eastern sections of Jamaica.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is in clusters from 13N
between 75W and parts of Nicaragua.

The strong tropical wave, that is in the central Caribbean Sea,
is producing widespread thunderstorms and gusty winds, as it
moves W 20 knots. The fast speed should inhibit significant
development of this system during the next day or so. The wave
and the associated surface low pressure center should slow
down and turn WNW in the western Caribbean Sea at the end of the
week. It is likely that a tropical depression may form by the
weekend in the NW Caribbean Sea. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. The chance
of development is high by the weekend.

Low pressure, that is associated with another tropical wave, is
expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean late on
Thursday, and approach the Atlantic waters off the Leeward
Islands late on Friday. This system also has a high potential
for development into a tropical cyclone.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near 32N54W to 23N56W, to Barbados.
Weak surface low pressure is about 400 nm to the west of the
upper level trough.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 25N northward between 58W and 70W.

An upper level trough is in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N
northward from 70W westward, on the eastern side of the
large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow, with the Gulf of
Mexico trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward from 60W eastward.
A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N52W, under the upper
level cyclonic circulation center.

A broad and elongated area of low pressure remains in the
central Tropical Atlantic Ocean. This low pressure is associated
with two tropical waves. Environment conditions are favorable
for tropical development. A tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so, as the low pressure moves WNW 15
to 20 mph. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is high. This system is forecast to
approach the Leeward Islands on Friday; to move across or just
to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday;
and then along northern Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos
Islands on Sunday.

$$
mt
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