[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 172353
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to
limit significant development.  After that time, however, the system
is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of
this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized since yesterday, with increasing banding features
near the center.  Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a
couple days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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