[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151726
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 19.1N 60.1W at 15/1500
UTC or 174 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 17N-23N between 56W-62W.
WNW general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
two followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week.
On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to
pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight.
However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress
until the storm has passed north of the area. It is possible
that locally heavy rainfall may reach the areas of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as
Josephine passes to the northeast of that area. It is
possible that isolated flooding may happen in Puerto Rico
through Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 39.0N 65.6W at 15/1500 UTC
or 313 nm ESE of Providence Rhode Island moving ENE at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 37N-43N between 54W-67W.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over Central America along 90W from 21N
southward moving west at 15 kt. Low pressure is forecast to
form in the Eastern Pacific in association with this wave this
weekend. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 14N30W to 12N40W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N45W to 06N55W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of
W Africa from 07N-16N between 11W-17W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between
25W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of
South America from 06N-11N between 51W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging is the northern Gulf of Mexico. Widely
Scattered  moderate convection is over the E Gulf E of 88W to
include Florida. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-20N between 94W-96W. Light
to gentle winds and seas of 4 ft or less are over the basin.

This high will support gentle winds and slight seas across the
basin through early next week. Locally fresh winds are possible
each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front
may approach the northern Gulf coast Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Josephine, which is expected to pass north and east of the
Leeward Islands this weekend.

Please also see the tropical waves section for information on
the tropical wave over Central America.

Aside from these areas, scattered moderate to strong convection
is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 77W-86W. Scattered
showers are over the Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 19.1N 60.2W 1008 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 19.8N 61.9W this evening,
21.0N 64.1W Sun morning, 22.3N 66.3W Sun evening, weaken to a
tropical depression near 23.8N 67.9W Mon morning, 25.2N 68.7W
Mon evening, and 26.7N 69.1W Tue morning. Josephine will become
a remnant low as it moves to near 29.0N 68.0W early Wed.
Elsewhere fresh trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean today, with strongest winds expected near
the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N50W.
Another 1026 mb high is over the E Altantic near 35N28W.

A persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
to the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate
southeast winds over the W Atlantic.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net