[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 150832
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of
the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although
the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is
well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals
that the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the
U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in
forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little
changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered
track guidance.

Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the
cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an
upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The
forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about
24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting
with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an
extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It
should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast
and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed
sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system
should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical
low in a little more than 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 38.7N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 39.7N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 41.0N  60.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 42.1N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/0600Z 42.8N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  17/1800Z 43.2N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0600Z 42.9N  40.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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