[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 15.3N 53.3W at 14/0900
UTC or 590 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 240 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. Josephine is forecast to generally continue to the WNW
for into the weekend, before turning NW for the start of next
week, with little strengthening expected. Josephine should pass
well NE of the Leeward Islands this weekend, and interests in
these islands should continue to monitor its progress.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 20N southward,
moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection has
developed in association with this wave from 06N to 13N between
36W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from Jamaica
southward, moving west at 15 knots. This wave will move across the
western Carribbean and into Central America this weekend. An area
of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it
moves to the west of Central America. It is possible that heavy
rainfall may occur in Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is located ahead
of this wave S of 16N and W of 78W.

A tropical wave that extends southward into the eastern Pacific is
along 95W in the Bay of Campeche. This wave is moving west at 15
knots. Scattered moderate convection exists in association with
this wave S of 20N and W of 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W to 13N28W to 09N35W to 10N43W.
The ITCZ is along 09N from 54W to 61W. Scattered moderate
convection exists within 210 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted just N of the ITCZ
from 10N to 12N between 50W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Aside from the previously mentioned tropical wave in the Bay of
Campeche, high pressure generally centered over the northern Gulf
of Mexico is dominating weather over the region, with light to
gentle winds, seas below 4 ft, and no significant convection in
the region.

High pressure across the northern Gulf will support
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
the weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible each night through
Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan
peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section above for information on the
strong tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean and its
impact on Central America into the weekend.

Also, please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Josephine that will pass well north and east of the
Leeward Islands this weekend.

Elsewhere across the region, dry air is precluding showers and
thunderstorms across the basin, aside from some isolated fast-
moving trade showers between 62W and 68W.Fres h to strong trade
winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through
tonight, with strongest winds expected near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Josephine.

A broad and weak upper level trough extends generally from Bermuda
through the Bahamas, with an associated surface trough farther
east from 21 to 26N along 64W. Only isolated showers are in the
vicinity of the surface feature. Farther east, another surface
trough is along 45W N of 25N, with some moderate convection within
about 120 nm of its axis, mainly N of 30N.

A high pressure ridge extending along 32-33N is dominates the
weather with the exception of these troughs. This persistent
ridge will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
across much of the basin into the weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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