[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Josephine, at 13/1500 UTC, is
near 13.7N 49.2W or 847 nm ESE of the northern Leeward Islands,
moving WNW at 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with
gusts to 50 knots. This general motion is expected to continue
for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest
late this weekend or early next week. Please monitor the
progress of Josephine if you are in the area of the
Leeward Islands. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 240 nm of the northern semicircle. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 23N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is within 180 nm of the wave axis to include Hispaniola.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 89W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through
Central America. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W
to 12N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the N Gulf of Mexico along 29N.
Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf E of 86W to
include Florida. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche
S of 20N.

An upper level east-to-west oriented trough extends from NW Cuba
to NE Mexico near 24N98W.

High pressure in the northern Gulf will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Locally fresh
winds are possible each night in the eastern Bay of Campeche
near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
SW Caribbean S of 14N and W of 79W to include S Nicaragua and
Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in south central
Caribbean Sea through late Friday night. The comparatively
strongest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, and in
the Gulf of Venezuela, each night. Fresh winds will pulse
through the Windward Passage during the next several nights.

Tropical Storm Josephine is near 13.7N 49.2W 1005 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 14.5N 51.1W this evening,
15.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 17.1N 56.3W Fri evening, 18.5N 58.9W
Sat morning, 19.9N 61.3W Sat evening, and 21.3N 63.6W Sun
morning. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near
24.0N 67.0W early Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue across the south-central Caribbean through late Fri
night, with strongest winds expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 35N62W. A 1027 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 37N31W. Scattered showers
are N of the Leeward Islands from 21N-26N between 60W-64W.

Tropical Storm Josephine is near 13.7N 49.2W 1005 mb  at
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 14.5N 51.1W this evening,
15.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 17.1N 56.3W Fri evening, 18.5N 58.9W
Sat morning, 19.9N 61.3W Sat evening, and 21.3N 63.6W Sun
morning. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression near
24.0N 67.0W early Mon. Otherwise, a persistent ridge extending
from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle
to moderate east to southeast winds, locally fresh S of 25N
through Fri night.

$$
Formosa
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