[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122221
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 12.4N
44.2W as of 12/1500 UTC. T.D Eleven is moving westward at 12 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A turn
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the
week. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later today. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-16N
between 37W-47W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 34W from
02N-18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The convection noted in the
proximity of the wave is related to the monsoon trough, from 0
7N-11N between 28W-34W.

A tropical wave has entered the east Caribbean, with axis
extending along 62W from 02N-23N, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern
portion of the wave affecting Puerto Rico and adjacent waters
north of 18N. Additional activity is also noted along the
coast of Venezuela near the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W from 19N
southward, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over the southern portion of the wave
affecting portions of Central America as it interacts with the
Pacific monsoon trough in the area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 17N16W to
to 12N39W. The ITCZ extends west of T.D Eleven near 08N50W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection prevail along and south of
the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 14W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 28N91W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
north of 26N and east of 90W and to the south of 26N between 87W-
92W. High level clouds with a few showers reaching the ground
are noted across the Bay of Campeche. Along the eastern Gulf
near the Florida coast, afternoon sea breeze convection has
moved offshore from 25N-28N. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, except the
Bay of Campeche where gentle to moderate easterly winds are
noted.

On the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the
basin. Fresh to locally strong winds are possible each night in
the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Pacific monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of
Colombia westward across Panama and Cost Raica. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N
between 79W-83W. ASCAT data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across most of the basin except south of 16N between 70W-80W
where fresh to strong winds are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds
expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
at night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage
during the next several nights. Tropical Depression Eleven will
strengthen to a tropical storm late tonight. It will maintain
Tropical Storm intensity as it continues northwestward then
begin to weaken Sun afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.D Eleven and the
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of
70W. A persistent surface ridge with a 1022 mb high extending
from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds mainly south of 27N through the
weekend. A surface trough in noted near 32N39W to 25N38W.
Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the trough
axis.

On the forecast, the Tropical Depression Eleven will strengthen
to a tropical storm late tonight. Eleven will maintain its T.S.
intensity as it continues northwestward late Fri night into Sat
afternoon. It is forecast to weaken Sun.

$$

MMTorres
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