[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102236
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N33W, along a
tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N-13N between 34W-38W. Environmental conditions are expected to
be somewhat conducive for development to occur, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days while the
disturbance moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis along the coast of
Africa along 17W, from 19N. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 14N between 17W-22W. from 17N south. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N-15N between 15W-
21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 33W south of 16N,
moving W at 15 kt. Please see the Special Features section for
information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 49W south of 21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is estimated based on
continuity near 70W south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is
currently difficult to track, and no significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 86W south of 19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection
is noted from 10N-21N between 81W-88W, including the Gulf of
Honduras, eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and the waters
within 60 nm of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. Enhanced
moisture seen on TPW imagery is present over the area, as well as
large-scale upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to a 1009 mb low near 10N33W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N53W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the ITCZ west of 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over most of the northern and central
Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb high is near 28N84W. Mid- to upper-
level troughing prevails over the area, leading to scattered
showers and tstorms across much of the eastern Gulf, east of
91W. The NW Gulf north of 26N between 92W-95W is drier, with
very little in the way of precipitation. A surface trough over
the SW Gulf from 24N95W to 17N93W is enhancing scattered
moderate convection from 18N-25N between 90W-97W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted along the southeast coast
of the Bay of Campeche. ASCAT pass shows gentle wind speeds
prevailing over most of the basin due to the surface ridging.
Moderate SE winds are in the SW Gulf.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area this
week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening for
the next several nights in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the
Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern half of the
basin. Relatively dry air is over the same area. The east
Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered strong convection
over the SW Caribbean, north of Panama and east of Central
America. ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the southern
Caribbean from 11N-16N between 71W-82W.

Strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean
this morning will result in large NE swell across the waters S
of 18N and W of 72W through tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the south-central Caribbean waters this
week, with near gale-force winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse for the next couple nights through the Windward
Passage. The system mentioned in the Special Features section may
approach the Lesser Antilles by late this week or early in the
weekend as a strong tropical wave or possibly a tropical cyclone.

An intensification of the Panamanian low may cause an enhancement
of moisture over the southern half of Central America late this
week. As a result, heavy rain is possible late this week over
portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The rains could lead
to localized flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A relatively weak pressure pattern persists across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting light to gentle winds
over the waters N of 24N and W of 50W. Weak low pressure lingers
well offshore of the NW Bahamas near 28N73W, with scattered
tstorms near the low and its associated trough that extends from
27N-31N between 70-74W. Another surface trough is analyzed from
30N61W to 24N62W, and scattered tstorms are occurring within 90
nm east of this feature. A second trough is analyzed near 30N54W
to 22N58W with scattered showers in the vicinity. Farther east,
1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N41W.

The weak 1018 mb low pressure will remain nearly stationary well
offshore of the NW Bahamas this evening, then dissipate by tonight.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night near the
coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage.
winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle and latter
parts of this week as a couple of tropical waves cross the region.
It is possible that the second wave may develop into a low pressure
system.

$$
Torres
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