[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any other
nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through a
transition area, from upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is
to the east of Hispaniola, toward upper level cyclonic wind flow
that covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken
to overcast multi-layered clouds and possible rain showers are
within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 450
nm to the west of the tropical wave, in the Caribbean Sea.
Inland precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters is from 09N to 12N between 65W and 73W just to the west
of Lake Maracaibo, in the northern sections of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 14N30W, to 11N40W, and 10N50W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N50W to 10N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough from 23W eastward; within 100 nm either side of
the monsoon trough between 40W and 45W; within 300 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 45W and 50W; and within 240
nm to the N of the ITCZ between the 56W tropical wave and 65W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
with a trough. The trough extends from SE Louisiana to the coast
of Mexico near 20N98W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 21N southward from 90W
westward, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Isolated moderate covers the Gulf of Mexico from 21N to 29N from
85W westward.

Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through
Wednesday. Comparatively stronger winds are expected in the
eastern Bay of Campeche, and near the Yucatan Peninsula at
night, due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 35N60W
cyclonic circulation center, to a second Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 27N68W, to the Windward Passage,
to Jamaica, to 15N79W, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from Hispaniola westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the area that is from Jamaica
westward.

The 72W tropical wave is moving through a transition area, from
upper level anticyclonic wind flow toward upper level cyclonic
wind flow. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds and possible rain showers are within 360 nm to the east
of the tropical wave, and within 450 nm to the west of the
tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters
is from 09N to 12N between 65W and 73W just to the west of Lake
Maracaibo, in the northern sections of Venezuela.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, beyond southern sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong in clusters is in Colombia, and in
the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of Colombia, from 04N
to the monsoon trough between 75W and 80W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. The comparatively
strongest winds will be present tonight and on Sunday, as a
tropical wave moves across the region. Moderate to fresh winds
are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N60W cyclonic circulation
center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near
27N68W, to the Windward Passage, to Jamaica, to 15N79W, to the
border area of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate and locally strong covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 58W westward.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N35W cyclonic circulation
center, to 25N35W, to 22N46W. A surface trough curves along the
line: 31N30W 30N35W 31N39W 29N43W 29N46W 26N48W. The trough
shows up in scatterometer wind data and satellite imagery.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N to 34N between
29W and 50W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N27W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near
26N46W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 27N58W,
to 26N65W. A 1018 mb low center is analyzed northeast of the
Bahmas near 28N73W along a surface trough from 30N72W, to
26N73W, to 25N76W.

Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern waters
through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail
to the south of 23N from Great Bahama Bank to the waters that
are to the north of Hispaniola.

$$
mt/dbm
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