[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1734 UTC Fri Aug 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

corrected final paragraph of tropical waves section

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The Atlantic tropical wave near 40W has been repositioned
to 35W based on satellite imagery and latest model guidance.
The wave is moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection in the vicinity of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, south of 19N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 49W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been analyzed along 67W,
south of 20N based on recent upper level sounding data. An
area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted in the eastern Caribbean Sea, from 11N-16N between the
Lesser Antilles to 69W. ASCAT data indicated locally gust of up
gale force winds associated to the strong convection east of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 19N30W to 08N49W. The ITCZ continues west of the
tropical wave, from 09N54W to 08N62W. Limited convection is noted
along the convergence zone axis, except scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 07N to 10N between 38W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A stationary front extends along the north central Gulf coast
from a low pressure near Mobile, Alabama to Port Arthur, Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from the NE Gulf,
near the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche, including
the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical wave over 96W in southern Mexico
is enhancing scattered to moderate convection along the western
Gulf coast from the western coast of the Bay of Campeche to 23N.

On the forecast, light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf
waters through Tue night. Stronger winds are expected in the
eastern Bay of Campeche and west of the Yucatan peninsula at
night due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean
Sea. The strong convection noted in the eastern Caribbean Sea is
associated to the tropical wave along 67W. Scattered moderate
convection covers the southwest Caribbean south of 13N between
75W-82W. ASCAT data shows moderate easterly trades across the
basin with the exception of fresh winds south 16N between 69W-77W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the central
Caribbean through Tue, with strongest winds expected Sat night
and Sun. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras and eastern Caribbean through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is analyzed from 29N62W to 29N75W with some
scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough axis. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted from 29N to 34N associated to
nearby stationary front. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb
high near 29N23W, to a 1023 mb high near 26N53W. A stationary
front north of 31N is enhancing scattered showers from 29N to 32N
near a 1017 mb low pressure in the northeast.

Light to gentle winds are expected across northern waters
through Tue, and moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate
the waters south of 23N from the Great Bahama Bank to north of
Hispaniola.

$$
AL
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