[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 030856
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to west
of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including the Tidal Potomac south of
Cobb Island, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, Delaware Bay,
Long Island, and Long Island sound.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Stonington,
Maine, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River
South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode
Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
* Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn toward
the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward
speed is expected later today and Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia
coast through this morning.  The center of Isaias will then
approach the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern
North Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today.  The
center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight and
move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into
the northeastern United States by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is
forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast
of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight
and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound,
Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through
Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in New England beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected
along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2
inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the
southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
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