[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 021755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Isaias.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radar near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning.
A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday
and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed.  On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida
today through late tonight.  On Monday and Tuesday, the center of
Isaias will move from offshore the coast of Georgia into the
mid-Atlantic states.

Data from the aircraft and the Melbourne, Florida, Doppler radar
data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be
possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN
station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind
gust of 48 mph (78 km/h), and a weather station at Sebastian Inlet,
Florida measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday
and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North
Carolina on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the
United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding
is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES:  The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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