[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 AM Sun Aug 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 25.5N 79.1W at 02/0300
UTC  or about 70 nm east-southeast of Fort Lauderdale, moving NW
at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Satellite
imagery depicts scattered to numerous moderate convection south
of 29N between 76W-80W reaching the northwest Caribbean. A
general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-
northwestward motion by late Sunday. Some restrengthening is
possible, and Isaias could regain hurricane strength early
Sunday.  Slow weakening is expected on Sunday night and continue
through Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

Latest scatterometer data confirmed that the system earlier
called T.D. Ten has no well-defined center. Winds associated
with this system have decreased to 20 kt or less, and no deep
convection is noted with it. The tropical depression has
dissipated, and the last advisory was issued by the National
Hurricane Center on this system. The last position at 0300 UTC
was 19.5N/25.0W.

Please read the last NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis
extending along 18W from 04N-18N. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 16W-22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
01N to 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection  prevails in the vicinity of the wave axis between
34W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from 04N-
23N,  moving west at 10-15 kt. Since this wave is still within
close proximity to an upper-level trough to its northwest, the
convection has been enhanced. Scattered moderate convection is
north of 16N between 54W-65W. This system is forecast to move
through environmental conditions that will favor for it to
develop within the next couple of days. A tropical depression
could form from it early next week. Please monitor the latest
Tropical Weather Outlooks for future updates on this system.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
16N17W to 10N27W to 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to  06N56W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves described above, scattered showers are noted along and
south of the boundaries to 00N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf with a 1015 mb high
analyzed near 27N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are
noted in scatterometer data over most of the basin, except
south of 26N and east of 87W where gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Scattered moderate convection is developing along
the coasts of Texas and Mexico and moving offshore reaching
the northwest Gulf waters. Observed wave heights throughout the
basin remain in the 2-3 ft range.

Mainly gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through
the middle of next week as weak high pressure over the northern
Gulf drifts southward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the northwestern Caribbean from
22N81W to 11N84W. No significant convection is related to this
trough at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across  the northwest Caribbean related to T.S. Isaias. This
activity covers from north of 17N and west of 72W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin.

Fresh trade winds will persist over the central Caribbean waters
through the middle of next week. A tropical wave will bring
increased winds and seas to the basin E of 60W tonight through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical
Storm Isaias, Tropical Depression Ten, and the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered near 30N47W. The pressure gradient in place
generally supports light to moderate winds across the area, with
the exception of fresh to strong winds over the waters south of
27N and west of 70W. Wave heights range 5-8 ft across most of
the area, with higher wave heights of 7-12 ft seas in the SW
northern Atlantic outside the tropical storm force winds
associated with T.S. Isaias.

Tropical Storm Isaias will begin to move N-NW overnight and
strengthen to a hurricane as it moves along and very near the
east coast of Florida, reaching near 26.6N 79.9W Sun morning,
near 28.0N 80.5W Sun evening afternoon. Isaias will weaken
to a tropical storm on Mon morning and accelerate northward
and move to near 32.0N 80.0W Mon evening, and exit the area
waters Tue. Large seas will persist tonight near and offshore
of the Bahamas, then spread northward across the waters W of
75W through Mon. Low pressure developing along the N portion
of a tropical wave is expected to become better organized as
it approaches the SE waters Sun night and could become the
next tropical cyclone early this week as it moves NW across
the outer waters.

$$

ERA
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