[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
110 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Isaias at 01/1500 UTC was located near
24.7N 77.9W, about 35 nm WSW of Nassau, Bahamas and 117 nm SSE of
Freeport Grand Bahama Island. Isaias is moving NW at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. The minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Seas are up to 18 ft. Most of the
convection is occurring in the NE and SE quadrants. Scattered
moderate to strong convection from 24N-26N between 76W-78W, which
is covering much of the central and northern Bahamas. There is a
cluster of strong convection from 23N-24N between 74W-75W. A
general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-
northwestward motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Isaias will move over northern Andros Island during the
next few hours and move near or over Grand Bahama Island in the
Northwestern Bahamas later today. Isaias is forecast to move near
the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Ten at 01/1500 UTC was located
near 18.6N 22.2W, about 187 miles NNE of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Tropical Depression Ten is moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The minimum central pressure
is 1009 mb. Scattered moderate convection is located within 200 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. Seas are up to 6 ft. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of
the Cabo Verde Islands this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml,
and the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Associated convection remains near the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along and ahead of the wave from 14N-
23N between 52W-60W.

A tropical wave is south of the Bay of Campeche along 95W, from
18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is
noted in the southern Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 10N32W to 08N54W. The ITCZ begins near 09N55W to the coast of
Venezuela near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is along and
south of the monsoon trough from 02N-11N between 13W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level ridging prevails across the Gulf with a 1017 mb
surface high analyzed near 29N88W. A surface trough is off the
Florida coast from 29N83W to 23N84W. Isolated thunderstorms are to
the west of this feature. A mid-level trough is pushing eastward
across the southern Plains and approaching the Gulf. As a result,
thunderstorms are moving off the Texas and Louisiana coasts into
the NW Gulf, N of 27N between 91W-96W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic wind flow is noted across the basin. Seas range from
1-4 ft.

Hurricane Isaias is centered near 24.7N 77.9W 987 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt.
Isaias will move near or over the NW Bahamas today, then move near
the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sun.
Mainly gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through
the middle of next week as weak high pressure persists over the
northern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from 21N79W to
10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the northern
portion of this trough, mostly across west-central Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is also moving across the NW Caribbean and
the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the
SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, S of 10N between 76W-81W.
Otherwise, quick moving showers are moving W across the Lesser
Antilles eastward to Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are
observed in the eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds in
the western basin. Seas range from 3-6 ft with up to 8 ft in the
central Caribbean.

Hurricane Isaias is centered near 24.7N 77.9W 987 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt.
Isaias will continue moving NW away from the region and toward the
east coast of Florida through tonight. Fresh trade winds will
persist over the central Caribbean waters through early next week.
A tropical wave will bring increasing winds and seas to the
waters N of 15N and E of 60W tonight through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the special features section for information on Hurricane
Isaias and Tropical Depression Ten.

Upper level ridging prevails across the Atlantic, anchored by a
1022 mb high near 29N46W. A trough is analyzed in the central
Atlantic from 32N30W to 26N33W with no significant convection
associated with it. Light to moderate winds span across the basin,
with moderate to fresh winds still noted across the southern
Bahamas and off the southeast Florida coast. Seas range 4-8 ft
across most of the area with 6-12 ft seas in the SW northern
Atlantic. Seas are up to 18 ft near the center of Isaias.

Hurricane Isaias is centered near 24.7N 77.9W 987 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt.
The center of Isaias will pass near or over Andros Island today
and move to near 25.7N 78.8W this evening. Isaias will move near
the east coast of the Florida peninsula to 27.1N 79.7W Sun
morning, 28.5N 80.3W Sun evening, and 30.1N 80.4W Mon morning,
then weaken to a tropical storm N of the waters near 32.6N 79.4W
Mon evening. Very large seas in SE swell are expected over the
waters near and offshore of the Bahamas today into tonight. These
seas will spread northward across the waters W of 75W late tonight
through Sun night, then move N of the region early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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