[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 011432
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The center of the depression is mostly exposed this morning with
deep convection remaining only over the northwest portion of the
circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a small area of
winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on this
data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The
persistent convection has likely bought a little more time for
the depression to survive. However, the cyclone is forecast to
remain over SSTs of about 24 to 25 C for the next day or so. This
should cause the convection to gradually decrease, causing the
depression to become a remnant low by tonight. An alternative
scenario is that the low could open into a trough before the
convection dissipates.

The depression is moving northwest at around 12 kt. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today as the cyclone pivots around
a large mid-level gyre to its southwest. This west-northwest motion
should continue until the system dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 18.6N  22.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.8N  23.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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