[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092020
519 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This product covers South Florida

**Hurricane Isaias moving through the central Bahamas this morning**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Broward and Inland Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Far South Miami-Dade
      and Inland Miami-Dade
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade,
      Inland Broward, Metro Broward, and Metro Miami-Dade
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Palm Beach and
      Metro Palm Beach

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles southeast of West Palm Beach FL or about 230
      miles east-southeast of Miami FL
    - 23.9N 77.1W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias is moving across the central Bahamas this morning on
a path towards the northwestern Bahamas today and then forecast to
arrive near the Florida Atlantic coast tonight as a Category 1
hurricane. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion this morning. Some outer squalls have brought wind gusts
of around 40 mph across southern Florida with their passage overnight.
As these squalls become more frequent through the day, it will become
increasingly dangerous to complete last- minute outdoor preparations.

Damaging hurricane force wind gusts are expected to affect parts of
coastal and metro Palm Beach County tonight through early Sunday
morning. A low possibility of hurricane force wind gusts reaching
further south along the coast into Broward County remains for tonight.
Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive along the Atlantic
coast of South Florida late this afternoon/evening. Winds are forecast
to gradually subside from south to north early Sunday in Miami-Dade
and Broward Counties through midday Sunday in Palm Beach County.
Continue to monitor trends and be ready to take appropriate action if
the forecast track shifts further west today.

With the forecasted approach of Isaias near the coast, and accounting
for the possibility of further westward shifts in the forecast track
in future forecasts, a reasonable worst case scenario at this time is
for damaging hurricane force winds in coastal portions of Palm Beach,
and sustained high-end tropical storm force winds (58 mph or greater)
over metro and inland Palm Beach and coastal and metro Broward
Counties. There remains a possibility of sustained tropical storm
force winds of 40 to 50 mph for Miami-Dade County northward to Lake
Okeechobee. If the track of Isaias were to shift even closer to the
coast, hurricane and tropical storm conditions could spread further
inland across eastern portions southern Florida.

Other concerns with Isaias will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and urban flooding through Sunday, particularly across
eastern portions of South Florida and around Lake Okeechobee where
there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. High surf, dangerous
rip currents, minor coastal flooding, and beach erosion are expected,
with the greater impacts along the Palm Beach coast. A stronger storm
and/or a track closer to the coast would increase the threat of
coastal flooding, so again it is important to keep monitoring future
forecasts.

Marine conditions are deteriorating this morning as the system
approaches the region from east to west across the local Atlantic
waters, with increasing winds and building seas. Marine conditions are
not likely to improve until sometime on Sunday at the earliest.

Isolated tornadic activity, focused over the Atlantic waters and the
east coast, cannot be ruled out.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across Palm Beach County. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of southeast Florida,
particularly eastern Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Southeast Florida metropolitan areas and
Lake Okeechobee region. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly rise with swift currents.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Southeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

RAG/PS
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