[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane ISAIAS, at 01/0600 UTC, is near 23.5N
76.7W. This position also is about 115 mi/185 km to the SSE of
Nassau in the Bahamas, and 245 mi/395 km to the SSE of Freeport
on Grand Bahama Island. ISAIAS is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 13
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135
nm of the center in the N quadrant, and from 120 nm to 240 nm of
the center in the E quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong is in
SE Cuba from 20N to 21N between 76W and 77W. Strong winds and
heavy rain continue in the central Bahamas. ISAIAS is expected
to approach the SE coast of Florida on Saturday. Hurricane-force
winds extend outward up to 30 nm/55 km from the center. Tropical
storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 nm/280 km from the
center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression TEN, at 01/0300 UTC, is near
17.1N 21.1W. TEN is about 180 nm/330 km to the ENE of the Cabo
Verde Islands. TEN is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 12 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong was within 90 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant from 31/2200 UTC until shortly
after 01/0000 UTC. The cloud top temperatures have been warming,
and the precipitation has been weakening with time. Broken to
overcast convective debris clouds are within 120 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. TEN is forecast to start to weaken
after the next 24 hours or so. TEN is forecast to dissipate by
48 hours.

Please read the latest Tropical Depression Ten NHC
Forecast/Advisory
and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 12N to 20N between 46W and 56W. Any
other nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 91W/92W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 23N southward from 87W
westward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is being broken up Tropical Depression TEN.
The monsoon trough is along 13N25W 12N30W 11N40W 10N50W 09N60W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 400 nm to south of the monsoon trough between 25W and
50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 200
nm of the coast of Africa from 05N to 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N northward from 90W eastward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind
flow.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N91W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

Hurricane Isaias is centered across the Central Bahamas near
23.3N 76.4W 987 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Isaias will move through the
Central and NW Bahamas tonight and Sat, then track northward and
near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Sat afternoon
through Sun night. Mainly gentle winds will prevail in the Gulf
of Mexico through early next week, as weak high pressure
persists in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 20N77W to 14N80W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is in SE Cuba from 20N to 21N
between 76W and 77W; isolated moderate is in the westernmost
sections of Jamaica.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from
Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in Colombia and Venezuela, from 07N to the
coast of Colombia between Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela and 77W in
Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris
clouds are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N
southward from 74W westward.

An upper level inverted trough extends from the Grand Cayman
Island into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 16N northward from 80W westward.

Hurricane Isaias is moving through the Central Bahamas tonight,
centered near 23.3N 76.4W 987 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Isaias will continue
NW through the Central Bahamas overnight; then veer N-NW through
the NW Bahamas and just offshore of S Florida Sat; move parallel
to the central and north Florida coast Sat night through Sun
night; and away from the region. Fresh to strong wind flow will
persist to the south of Hispaniola tonight, and then diminish on
Saturday. A trough will bring increased wind speeds and sea
heights to the waters that are to the N of 15N and E of 60W late
Saturday night and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 60W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate in the area of cyclonic wind
flow.

Broken to overcast high level clouds are spiraling away from the
area of Hurricane ISAIAS. Those clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Hurricane Isaias is moving through the Central Bahamas tonight,
centered near 23.3N 76.4W 987 mb at 0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Isaias will move
through the NW Bahamas Sat morning; then begin to veer N-NW and
move near the SE coast of Florida; reaching near 25.9N 79.1W Sat
evening; then continue northward and just offshore of the east
coast of Florida; reaching near 28.5N 80.5W Sun evening; then
weaken to a tropical storm near 30.2N 80.5W on Monday morning.
Isaias will accelerate, and exit the area on Monday afternoon.
Very large seas in SE swell are expected in a large part of the
SW North Atlantic Ocean near and offshore of the Bahamas, from
tonight into Saturday. Swell associated with Isaias will spread
northward across the waters W of 75W, from Saturday night
through Sunday night, then move N of the region early next week.

$$
mt
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