[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 271440
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly
disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the
circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that
extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry.  A partial
ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of
the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered,
probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is
now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear.  The
shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and
also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to
weakening and further loss of organization.  Based on the latest
global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours and then
open up into a trough by day 3.  Given the cyclone's current
structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these
options could occur as soon as later today.

The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt.  As it
becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its
eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward
on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the
western Atlantic.  This forecast scenario remains consistent with
the reasoning from previous NHC advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 28.8N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 29.0N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1200Z 29.1N  59.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z 29.3N  60.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 29.3N  62.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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