[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 18.6N 42.1W at 27/0900 UTC or
1620 nm SW of the Azores moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125
kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 180 nm in the S semicircle and 250 nm N semicircle. A turn
toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast on Sunday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
are possible today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by the
weekend. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 28.3N 61.2W at 27/0900 UTC
or 350 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 26N-29N between 58W-63W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted north of Puerto Rico from 20N64W to
30N58W. This general NE motion is forecast to continue this
morning, but Karen is forecast to become nearly stationary by
tonight or early Saturday. A westward motion is then anticipated
by the end of the weekend. Karen is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by Saturday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall
is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas
from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to
southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead
to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 05N24W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical
wave near 05N29W to 04N34W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered showers are along the vicinity
of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 17N90W.
A surface trough extends northwestward from the low to the NW
Gulf of Mexico near 23N96W. This is resulting in scattered
moderate isolated strong convection in the Bay of Campeche from
18N-21N 91W-95W. Scattered showers are also seen in the NW Gulf
from 26N-28N between 94W-96W. A 1014 mb high is centered over the
NE Gulf near 28N83W. 5-10 kt surface winds are noted throughout
the Gulf. No significant deep convection is present over the Gulf
this evening.

A trough over the western Gulf will continue to move slowly
westward, then reach the northeast coast of Mexico on Sat. High
pressure will prevail elsewhere across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and
southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section
above for more details.

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba westward to 17N82W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm north of the
trough and 150 nm to the south of the trough affecting the coast
of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the Gulf of Honduras associated to the 1006 mb low
pressure centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 17N90W.
Additional scattered moderate convection is present in the SW
Caribbean Sea mainly due to the proximity of the Pacific monsoon
trough in the area, from 08N-12N between 76W-82W. Light and
gentle winds prevail between 69W-83W and moderate to fresh winds
in the Eastern and NW Caribbean.

Trade winds will return to the Caribbean today, and will continue
through Wed, with winds increasing over much of the central and
western Caribbean through early next week. Swells generated from
Lorenzo will propagate into the tropical N Atlc and eastern
Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen.

A 1016 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N72W. To
the South, scattered showers are present north of the Bahamas
from 27N-31N between 74W-79W. A surface trough extends from the
SE Bahamas near 22N73W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted along the trough from the Windward
Passage to the Bahamas, from 20N74W to 22N73W. east of Hurricane
Lorenzo, High pressure near 35N26W remains in control and
extends into the eastern Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Karen will move to 28.8N 60.1W this afternoon,
weaken to a tropical depression near 29.1N 59.6W Sat morning,
become a remnant low and move to 29.3N 60.1W Sat afternoon, then
dissipate by Mon. High pressure building N of the area will slowly
increase winds and seas across the area this weekend into early
next week.

$$
Torres
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