[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 16.5N 40.8W at 26/2100 UTC or
950 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center.
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Saturday. Additional strengthening
is possible tonight, and fluctuations in intensity are expected
Friday and Saturday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 27.2N 62.9W at 26/2100 UTC
or 320 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 20N65W to 30N60W.
The storm is expected to turn eastward and become nearly
stationary by Friday night, and then begin moving westward over
the weekend. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and
Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday. Please read
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall
is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas
from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to
southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead
to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-11N
between 26W-29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N20W to 08N28W. The monsoon trough resumes west
of Hurricane Lorenzo near 12N43W to 08N50W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from
04N-11N between 08W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is centered over NE Yucatan Peninsula near 19N90W.
A surface trough extends northwestward from the low to the NW
Gulf of Mexico near 26N94W. A 1015 mb high is centered over the
NE Gulf near 28N85W. 5-10 kt surface winds are noted throughout
the Gulf. No significant deep convection is present over the Gulf
this evening.

A trough over the western Gulf will continue to move slowly
westward before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat.
Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and
southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section
above for more details.

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba westward to 18N85W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
trough as well as from 12N-15N between 77W-80W.

Tradewinds will return to the Caribbean Friday through the
remainder of the forecast period with winds increasing over much
of the central and western Caribbean through early next week.
Swells generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate through the
tropical N Atlc and eastern Caribbean passages through this
weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen.

A 1015 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N73W. A
surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas near 23N72W to E Cuba.
No significant deep convection is present in connection with this
trough.

Tropical Storm Karen near 27.2N 62.9W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving
NNE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Karen
will move to 27.9N 61.8W Fri morning, 28.2N 60.6W Fri afternoon,
weaken to a tropical depression near 28.1N 60.3W Sat morning,
become a remnant low and move to 28.0N 61.0W Sat afternoon, and
27.9N 63.8W Sun afternoon. Karen will change little in intensity
as it moves to 27.9N 66.3W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue. High
pressure will N of the area will bring an increase in winds and
seas by the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Landsea
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