[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 250854
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC
yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical
cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it
no longer poses any threat to the island.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly
through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that
Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That
said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone
the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and
believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore
maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to
sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next
few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in
about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well.

A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn
northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The
models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will
continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by
low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass
very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement
on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the
previous NHC track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 31.8N  67.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  25/1800Z 32.3N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  26/0600Z 33.0N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  26/1800Z 33.9N  61.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 34.6N  59.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z 34.0N  55.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net