[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 250237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away
from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours,
but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will
continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over
the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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