[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 18.5N 65.3W at 25/0000 UTC,
or about 40 nm E of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving NE at 9 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt gusting to 50 kt, and
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Karen's squalls will continue
to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight before it
pulls away to the north of those islands on Wednesday. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Numerous
moderate with scattered strong convection extends outward from
the center 30 nm NE quad, 240 nm SE quad, 180 nm SW quad and 90 nm
NW quad. Puerto Rico radar shows that heavy rains cover the
eastern half of Puerto Rico and the waters from 16N-18.5N between
65W-67W. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Dominican
Republic. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 31.3N 68.9W at 25/0000 UTC,
or about 215 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving NNE at 4 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are near 45 kt gusting to 55 kt, and minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. The center of Jerry is expected to
pass near Bermuda on Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
No convection is present within 180 nm of Jerry's center.
Scattered moderate convection is between 180 nm and 540 nm to the
east and southeast of Jerry's center. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 12.8N 31.0W at 24/2100
UTC, or about 405 nm WSW of the southernmost part of the Cabo
Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
near 55 kt gusting to 65 kt, and minimum central pressure is 997
mb. A west-northwest motion at a similar forward speed is expected
through Thursday. Lorenzo is expected to strengthen to a hurricane
tonight or on Wednesday. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center in the E semicircle, and 60 nm W semicircle.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm of the
center. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Heavy rain event over Central America and Southeastern Mexico: The
East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean inland
over the spine of Central America, across Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala, and westward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Southwesterly
monsoonal flow is carrying abundant moisture from the tropical
Pacific Ocean toward Central America. As a result, heavy rainfall
is expected over Central America today through the week and into
the weekend. By late this week and into the weekend, the greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas from
southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. The heavy rains could lead
to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 27N40W to 17N44W to
03N42W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
22N-29N between 36W-43W. Scattered showers are from 12N-19N
between 41W-47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 15N21W. The monsoon trough resumes west of T.S. Lorenzo
from 10N36W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 09N60W.
Aside from the convection associated with Lorenzo and the tropical
wave, isolated moderate convection is seen from 13N-18N between
20W-26W, including over the Cabo Verde Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the coasts of Texas,
northeastern Mexico, and the western Gulf of Mexico west of 92W
and north of 23N. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf
east of a line from 29N91W to 20N96W. At the surface, high
pressure of 1015 mb is near the Gulf Coast of southern
Mississippi and SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends over the
Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico from 24N89W to
19N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
22N-25N between 89W-91W. Similar convection is inland over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the
Gulf south of 25.5N between 86W-91.5W. The surface trough will
move slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during
the next few days. This trough has a low chance of developing
into a tropical cyclone before reaching northeastern Mexico late
Fri or Sat. Scattered showers are also noted in the south-central
Bay of Campeche, south of 21N between 92.5W-96W. Isolated showers
are also seen near the lower Texas coast. The driest air in the
Gulf right now can be found in the eastern Gulf, east of a line
from Mobile Alabama to 23N85W, where little to no cloud cover is
observed. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning showed gentle
anticyclonic winds in the northern Gulf, with moderate winds in
the central and SE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An E-W surface trough has been added to the analysis at 21Z across
the northern Caribbean Sea extending from the eastern tip of Cuba
to 19N77W to 21N83W. Water vapor and TPW loops show a sharp
moisture gradient along a line from 21N75W to 21N82W to 23N86W,
with dry air north of this line and moist air south of the line.
Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-21.5N between 72W-80W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are also in the Yucatan Channel and
from 20N-23N between 82W-87W. A surface trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula is enhancing scattered moderate convection over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is also
over northern Colombia and the waters south of 12.5N between
72W-74W. ASCAT from late Tuesday morning showed that gentle winds
cover most of the Caribbean Sea west of 69W.

Tropical Storm Karen will move north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico, exiting the Caribbean Sea late tonight. By sunrise
Wednesday morning, all winds of 20 kt or greater associated with
Karen's circulation will have exited the Caribbean Sea. A fairly
weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas
will prevail across the western and central Caribbean Sea through
Thursday. More typical conditions and trade winds are forecast to
return by the end of the week. A tropical wave is expected to
reach the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week, moving
through the eastern Caribbean Sea for the start of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated upper-level low is located to the southwest of Jerry.
This has induced strong southwesterly shear over Jerry, causing
the tropical storm to become devoid of any convection. A large
area of scattered moderate convection is located to the east of
Jerry, seen from 25N-32N between 56W-66W. Farther east, an upper-
level low prevails just north of the area centered near 33N46W,
with a tail of mid to upper-level moisture wrapping well to the
southeast and south of the upper-low. The moisture extends into
the northern end of the tropical wave that begins near 27N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-32N between 35W-44W. On
the west side of the upper-low, scattered moderate convection is
from 29N-32N between 47W-50W.

Tropical Storm Jerry is near 31.3N 68.9W, 992 mb, at 8 PM EDT,
moving NNE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Jerry is devoid of convection and will continue to
weaken, as it moves to near 33N66W Wed afternoon.

Tropical Storm Karen is near 18.5N 65.3W, 1003 mb, at 8 PM EDT,
moving NE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Karen will move to near 22N65W Wed afternoon, 26N
63.5W Thu afternoon, and 27N62W Fri afternoon while strengthening
slightly.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 12.8N, 31.0W, 997 mb, at 5 PM EDT,
moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Lorenzo will strengthen to a hurricane tonight or
early Wed, then move to near 16N40W Thu afternoon, and to near
22N45W Saturday afternoon, likely as a large and powerful
hurricane.

$$
Hagen
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