[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 241445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a
system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of
central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced
to the west and well southeast of the center.  In fact, the cyclone
looks somewhat subtropical at this time.  For simplicity, however,
we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm.  Flight-level
winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still
support an intensity of 50 kt.  Jerry will be encountering an
increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with
the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming
stronger.  The official intensity forecast calls for continued
weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast
period.  This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.

Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a
little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion
estimate is 350/6 kt.  There are no significant changes to the
track forecast philosophy, however.  Over the next couple of days
Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the
flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough.  Later in the
period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to
east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical
anticyclone.  The official track forecast is close to the previous
one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model
consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or
early Wednesday.  Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 30.8N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 31.7N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 32.6N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 33.5N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 34.2N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 35.0N  57.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 34.5N  54.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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