[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 16.8N 65.8W at 24/0900 UTC,
or about 115 nm SSW of St. Croix, moving NNW at 7 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A north-northeastward motion is forecast
tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wed.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Karen is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands today, where a Tropical Storm Warning
is in effect. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within
180 nm of the center in the southern semicircle and 90 nm of the
northern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is also well
to the east, from 12N-17N between 64W-62W, including over portions
of the Lesser Antilles. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 29.8N 68.4W at 24/0900 UTC,
or about 275 nm SW of Bermuda, moving N at 7 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 993 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected tonight,
followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is present in
the NW quadrant extending 190 nm from the center, scattered
showers extend out 400 nm from the center E of the semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 12.0N 28.0W at 24/0900
UTC, or about 310 nm SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands,
moving W at 13 kt. Minimum central pressure is 999 mb, and
maximum sustained winds are near 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A
west-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Lorenzo
is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane later today. It
could become a major hurricane on Thu. Scattered moderate to
convection is within 250 nm of the center in the NW and NE
quad. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen 260 nm in the
SW quad. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 23N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the wave axis from 05N-24N between 36W-42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is present west of the Tropical Storm Lorenzo
from 09N30W to 07N40W to 05N45W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to
5N53W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper-level low that covers the
western Gulf of Mexico, with much drier air north of a line from
Cuba to 28N90W. Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S.
extends ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico, where fair weather
prevails. A surface trough extends from 24N87W to 18N88W in the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection are seen over
the SE Gulf of Mexico south of 23N between western Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel. Over the SW Gulf, scattered showers and tstorms
are present near the coast of Bay of Campeche south of 19N between
93W-97W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds over the
SE Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh NE to E winds and seas to near 8 ft from the Florida
Straits to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish and
subside slightly this morning as a weaker pressure gradient
between E to W ridging across the northern portion of the basin,
and a surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula weakens. Weak
low pressure may form along the trough while it moves slowly
westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days before it reaches the NE coast of Mexico late Fri or Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for info on Tropical Storm Karen, currently
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Scattered tstorms continue west of Haiti to the Windward Passage,
south of Cuba and into Jamaica. Farther south, scattered showers
are seen over Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, due to the East
Pacific monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows light to
gentle winds across the western two-thirds of the basin, west of
69W.

Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to early
Sat, and continue to the 27.7N 65.5W early Sun. Otherwise, a
fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low
seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by
the end of the week. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the end of the week, moving through the eastern
Caribbean for the start of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for more info on Tropical Storm Jerry, Tropical
Storm Karen, Tropical Storm Lorenzo and the tropical wave over
the basin.

Water vapor imagery shows dry air is present west of 70W in the
western Atlantic. Surface high pressure ridging prevails over the
NE Atlantic from a 1023 mb high centered 31N29W.

Jerry will move to 30.6N 68.4W this afternoon, move N of the area
to 31.7N 67.0W Wed morning, 32.7N 64.6W Wed afternoon, weaken to
a tropical depression near 33.6N 61.9W Thu morning, and become a
remnant low and move to 34.9N 56.9W Fri morning. Tropical Storm
Karen will move to near or over Puerto Rico at 18.1N 65.9W this
afternoon, 20.1N 65.5W Wed morning, to 22.6N 64.7W Wed afternoon,
24.6N 64.0W Thu morning, and 27.3N 62.7W Fri morning. Karen will
change little in intensity as it moves to early Sat, and continue
to the 27.7N 65.5W early Sun.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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