[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240007 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Karen is centered near 15.8N 65.7W at 24/0000
UTC, or about 125 nm SSW of St. Croix, moving NNW at 11 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb, and maximum sustained winds
are near 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will
move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tue
night and Wed. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours. Karen is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty
winds to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the
southern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is also well to
the east, from 12N-17N between 58.5W-63W, including over portions
of the Lesser Antilles. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 28.6N 68.3W at 24/0000
UTC, or about 285 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 5 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 991 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near
55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by early Wed. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Bermuda, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday.
Thereafter, a motion to the east-northeast is expected. Gradual
weakening is forecast during the next few days. Numerous
moderate with scattered strong convection extends outward from
the center to 150 nm NE quad, and 90 nm in the SE and NW quads.
Elsewhere in the E semicircle, scattered moderate convection
extends out to 300 nm from the center. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 11.3N 25.5W at 23/2100
UTC, or about 220 nm SSW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands,
moving W at 14 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb, and
maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A
westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed
is anticipated for the next several days. Additional strengthening
is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by
Wednesday. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm
of the center NE quad, 210 nm SE quad, 240 nm SW quad and 180 nm
NW quad. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm
E semicircle, 420 nm SW quad and 210 nm NW quad. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 23N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 08N-20N between 35W-40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 15N20W. The monsoon trough resumes west of T.S. Lorenzo near
10N29W to 10N39W to 06N49W. The ITCZ extends from 06N49W to
06N57W. Scattered showers are from 06N-14N between 46W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper-level low that covers the
western Gulf of Mexico, with much drier air north of a line from
Key West Florida to 27N88W to 30N94W. Surface high pressure over
the southeast U.S. extends ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico,
where fair weather prevails. An E-W shear line extends through the
Florida Straits westward to 23N86W. A surface trough is from
24N87W to 18N88.5W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are seen over the SE Gulf of Mexico south of 25N and east
of 89W to western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Over the SW Gulf,
a surface trough is analyzed from 19N92W to 20N95W to 24N97W.
Scattered showers and tstorms cover the western Gulf west of 93.5W
and also just inland from Houston to Tampico, enhanced by the
upper-low. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds over
the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh NE to E winds and seas to near 8 ft will continue through
the Straits of Florida to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Tue morning. Conditions will gradually improve as the
pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower
pressure associated with a trough across the Straits weakens. New
high pressure will develop along the northern Gulf tonight, then
will slowly lift N by the end of the week. Otherwise, the surface
trough from 24N87W to 18N88.5W will continue to produce showers
and tstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico. This trough could become a
broad low soon, and it is forecast to move slowly westward across
the SW Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. There is a low
chance of tropical cyclone development of this trough or broad low
through the week before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico
late Friday or Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for info on Tropical Depression Karen, currently
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Scattered afternoon tstorms over the Greater Antilles and Jamaica
will be slow to wane as the evening progresses due to enhanced
moisture over the area. Farther south, scattered moderate
convection is over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and the waters south
of 12.5N between 69W-77W. Similar convection is seen over Panama
and Costa Rica, due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. The latest
ASCAT pass shows light to gentle winds across the western two-
thirds of the basin, west of 69W.

Tropical Depression Karen is forecast to remain a 30 kt tropical
depression until after it exits the basin to the north of Puerto
Rico by late Tuesday. Other than Karen over the eastern Caribbean,
a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and
low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by
the end of the week. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for more info on Tropical Storm Jerry, Tropical
Depression Karen, Tropical Storm Lorenzo and the tropical wave
over the basin.

A shear line extends from 24N74W to 23N86W. Scattered showers are
seen in the Florida Straits and just east of the Central Bahamas.
Water vapor imagery shows dry air north and west of a line from
Key West Florida to 24N77W to 30N70W, where partly cloudy skies
prevail. Farther E, a stationary front extends from 32N38W to
30N49W, continuing as a dissipating stationary front to 28N57W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from 25N50W to beyond 32N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-32N between 42W-47.5W.
Surface high pressure ridging prevails over the NE Atlantic east
of 35N and north of 23N.

Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast to move from near 30N69W tonight
to near Bermuda Wed morning, and then move to the NE and farther
away from the forecast area. Tropical Depression Karen will move
into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon, then
continue N to near 27N65W Thursday afternoon, possibly
strengthening to a tropical storm before slowing down its forward
speed. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is forecast to strengthen to a
hurricane Tuesday night near 13N33W, then move WNW to near 21N46W
by Saturday as a hurricane.

$$
Hagen
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