[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 13.3N 63.6W at 23/0600 UTC
or 315 nm SSE of St. Croix moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. T.S. Karen has maximum sustained
winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extends 140 nm SW quadrant from 10N-12N between
62W-65W. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Little change in strength is expected during the next
couple of days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 27.5N 67.2W at 23/0600 UTC
or 365 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection prevails 200 nm in the NE and SE quadrant, from 23N-
29N between 61W-67W. Scattered showers extend out 400 nm on the NE
quadrant and 250 nm SE quadrant. A turn to the north is expected
Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

A tropical wave along 19W extends from 18N to a 1008 mb low near
10N20W to 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite images indicate
the shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with the low. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 20W-23W. Continued
development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Monday while
the disturbance moves generally westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on
Monday. This system has a high chance for tropical formation
during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 35W from 21N southward
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave well.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W
to a 1008 mb low near 10N20W to 09N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N44W to 07N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
sections above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 24W-34W and 07N-10N between 42W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered in the western Atlantic. This
feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of
the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front over the western
Atlantic passes through the Bahamas near 24N78W to the Florida
Straits near 23N80W to the eastern Gulf near 23N85W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the boundary. Scattered showers
are present from 22N-26N and west of 91W. Latest ASCAT data depicts
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico north
of the front mainly east of 81W from 23N-29N. Gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds prevail elsewhere across the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and
lower pressure associated with a diminishing stationary front to
the south will weaken as the high spreads southward and the front
dissipates for the start of the week. Thus, winds and seas will
gradually lessen into Monday. Overall high pressure will dominate
through much of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for information on Tropical Storm
Karen in the SE Caribbean.

An E-W stationary front is over the Florida Straits enhancing
convection near NW Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are also
seen over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and eastern Cuba. In the
SW Caribbean south of 10N and west of 79W, scattered showers
are present due to the proximity of the East Pacific monsoon
trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds
across most of the basin, except the eastern Caribbean near T.S.
Karen.

Tropical Storm Karen will move north of Puerto Rico by Wednesday
morning, then continue moving north into late week, slowing in
forward speed with time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N45W to 27N58W. A
weakening stationary front is analyzed west of T.S. Jerry and
extends from 26N71W across the Bahamas to 24N78W into the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen 100 nm of the cold
front and scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the
weakening stationary front. Further East, a stationary front pass
through the Canary Islands near 31N10W to 28N19W to 28N25W. No
significant convection is noted with the front.

Jerry will move north of the region by Wednesday and pass near
Bermuda on Thursday. Little chance in strength is forecast through
Fri with a continued north and northeast motion anticipated.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karen will move north of Puerto Rico
and the area by Wednesday morning, then continue moving north into
the SW Atlantic late week, slowing in forward speed with time.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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