[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTCA82 TJSJ 230309
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-231115-

Tropical Storm Karen Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service San Juan PR  AL122019
1109 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LITTLE
 CHANGE IN STRENGTH**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Central Interior,
      Culebra, Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North
      Central, Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and
      Vicinity, Southeast, Southwest, St Croix, St.Thomas...St.
      John...and Adjacent Islands, Vieques, and Western Interior

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 400 miles south-southeast of San Juan PR or about 390
      miles south-southeast of Ponce PR or about 330 miles south-
      southeast of Saint Croix VI
    - 13.1N 63.5W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Slight changes were introduced to the forecast trajectory. Based on
the latest forecast track, the center of Karen is still forecast to
approach the local islands, passing over Puerto Rico and near the U.S.
Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Therefore, tropical storm force winds could
begin to affect the local area late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Rainfall activity associated with this system is also expected to start
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, continuing through
Wednesday. Rough and hazardous seas are forecast across the local
waters through at least Wednesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across south and east Puerto Rico as well as across the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible impacts across PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible impacts across
south and east Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible impacts across the PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.

Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish and
flood waters abate.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Juan PR around 2 AM AST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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