[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 221454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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