[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 25.0N 66.9W at 22/0900 UTC
or 450 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N-
26N between 64W-67W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 21N-27N between 62W-68W. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda late Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 11.9N 60.9W at 22/1200 UTC
or 45 nm ESE of Grenada moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07N-14N between 56W-66W. On the forecast track,
Karen will move across the Windward Islands today and tonight,
and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea by Monday morning.
On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Satellite images show that thunderstorm activity associated with a
strong tropical wave over the west coast of Africa is quickly
becoming better organized. The wave has its axis along 16/17W and
S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 04N-15N between 14W-23W. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or
tonight while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this
system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Monday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W/33W and S of 19N is
moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery
depict this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 120
nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N20W to 09N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the sections above, widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-10N between 22W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered off the coast of North Carolina near 35N71W. This
feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of
the Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong E winds over the northeastern two-thirds of the Gulf of
Mexico, NE of a line from the Yucatan Channel to to Freeport
Texas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail farther south and west.
Scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf, S Florida, and
the Straits of Florida from 23N-25N between 80W-86W. An upper-
level trough is over the E Gulf with upper-level diffluence over
the SE Gulf, enhancing convection.

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
will dominate the Gulf waters through today. The pressure
gradient will remain quite tight over the eastern Gulf through
tonight, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8
to 10 ft, highest near the Straits of Florida. New high pressure
will develop across the northern Gulf by Mon and will linger
through the week, causing the pressure gradient to weaken and wind
and sea conditions to improve.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1011 mb surface low is centered north of Jamaica near 19N76W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low.
Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Colombia from
11N-14N between 73W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is inland
over S Guatemala, El Salvador, W Honduras, and NW Nicaragua.
Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia and the
SW Caribbean S of 11N mostly due to the East Pacific monsoon
trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds
across much of the basin.

Tropical Storm Karen is near 11.9N 60.9W, 1005 mb, at 8 AM EDT
moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt. Karen will move to near 15N 64W by Mon afternoon, near
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday, and near 24N 65W
Thu morning while strengthening slightly. Meanwhile, large
northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE Caribbean
passages through the remainder of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N55W to
29N64W to 27N70W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
front. A 1020 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N38W.
The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N14W to 29N22W to 26N34W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front.

Tropical Storm Jerry near 25.0N 66.9W 1002 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry
will move to 26.3N 67.6W this afternoon, 27.6N 68.0W Mon morning,
29.0N 68.3W Mon afternoon, 30.4N 68.6W Tue morning, and N of the
area to 34.0N 65.5W Wed morning.

$$
Formosa/Hagen
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