[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 21.4N 64.0W at 21/0900 UTC
or 660 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 18N-24N between 60W-66W.  On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well
east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward
over the western Atlantic on Monday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W S of 15N is moving
W at around 15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict
this wave well. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 05N-15N between 44W-57W. Environmental conditions are
currently conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form on Sunday or early next week while the
system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward, crossing
the Windward Islands on Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become less conducive for development by the middle of next
week once the wave moves out of the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser
Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The
system has a medium chance for tropical formation through the
next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 26W and S of 19N is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery
depict this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within
180 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W. Refer to the
section above for details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W and S of
20N is moving W at 15 kt. A 1008 mb low is centered E of the
wave axis near 18N76W. Scattered moderate convection is over SW
Haiti and Jamaica from 16N-19N between 73W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N26W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 09N50W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 10N54W to the coast of
Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, clusters of scattered moderate
convection are along the coast of W Africa from 05N-19N between
10W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 04N-10N between 29W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered over North Carolina near 35N77W. This feature is
keeping an east to southeast flow across much of the basin.
Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds
near the eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate E/SE winds on the
central and west Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is over the
Straits of Florida.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf
waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas. New high pressure will develop
over the northern Gulf by early next week with the pressure
gradient slackening, and wind and sea conditions improving
through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and
surface low moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW
Venezuela and N Colombia mostly due to the proximity of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Isolated moderate convection is
also inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central
Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

The loe off of Jamaica continues to produce only disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level winds,
significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend,
potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
high terrain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Hurricane Jerry.

A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from
31N60W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the front. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 32N43W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong winds across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of
74W.

Tropical Storm Jerry near 21.4N 64.0W 995 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry
will move to 22.7N 65.4W this afternoon, 24.3N 66.7W Sun
morning, 26.0N 67.2W Sun afternoon, 27.3N 67.4W Mon morning, and
29.8N 66.9W Tue morning. Jerry will strengthen to a hurricane
once it is N of the area near 33.2N 63.7W early Wed, and change
little in intensity as it moves to 36.7N 60.0W early Thu.
Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will continue to impact
the Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the
weekend.

$$
Formosa
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