[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jerry is centered near 18.8N 60.3W at 20/1500 UTC or
190 nm ENE of Anguilla moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
withing 90 nm of the center in the NW and W quadrant. Scattered
showers extend 220 nm on the SW quadrant. On the forecast track,
the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands
later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well
east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday. Further weakening is forecast during the
next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early next
week. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W S of 17N and is moving W
at 10-15 kt. Model guidance depicts this wave well. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N-15N between 18W- 23W.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W S of 15N with a low
centered near 09N46W, moving W at 10 kt. Model guidance depicts
this wave well. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
04N-13N between 45W-50W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W S of 18N is moving
W at 10 kt. Another low pressure center is located in the wave's
environment near 16N72W with a central pressure of 1008 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N-19N between 71W-
77W, including south-central Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 13N16W to
09N23W to 08N33W. The ITCZ begins near 08N33W to 09N45W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 07N49W to the coast of Guyana
near 07N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon
trough from 05N-09N between 23W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure centered near 38N77W extends south across
the basin keeping an east to southeast flow across much of the
basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE
winds near the eastern Gulf and light to moderate E/SE winds on
the central and west Gulf coast.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf
waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas to 9 or 10 ft. ft. New high
pressure will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean through N
Honduras. A trough is reflected at the surface and is analyzed
from 19N79W to 13N82W with a 1007 mb low pressure centered near
15N81W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean
stretching from the Cayman Islands to the Gulf of Honduras. Upper
level ridging across the central Atlantic extends into the eastern
Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection. However, there are
some passing showers across the Lesser Antilles through eastern
Puerto Rico with some isolated thunderstorms seen across the
northern Lesser Antilles. A 1008 mb low pressure is near 16N72W
producing scattered moderate to strong convection 200 nm N/NE of
the low. Convection extends from 15N-21N between 69W-75W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts the centered of the low pressure with
moderate to fresh winds near the center. Light to gentle winds
across most of the basin with moderate to fresh northerly winds in
the NW Caribbean.

A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean
Sea is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity,
mainly to the east and northeast of its center of circulation.
This system is expected to move slowly WNW across the Central
Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Jerry and Hurricane Humberto.

A stationary front extends across the central and western
Atlantic, entering the forecast discussion area near 31N58W to
24N71W, then transitions to a stationary weakening front from
24N71W to 23N81W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along this
front, mostly 100 nm north and south of the boundary. A frontal
trough is noted southeast of the frontal boundary from 24N69W to
20N74W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N42W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the
western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W.

Hurricane Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 29.0N 67.5W early Tue, and continue to near 33.0N 64.0W Wed.
Meanwhile, large swell generated by Humberto, now as an extratropical
cyclone located well N of the area will continue to impact the
Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the
weekend.

$$
Torres
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