[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 38.5N 58.7W at 19/2100 UTC
or 480 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
125 nm to 250 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The hurricane
is expected to slowly weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Hurricane Jerry is centered near 17.5N 55.8W at 19/2100 UTC or
340 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the
northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas
on Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W, from 15N
southward, is moving W 10-15 kt. Model guidance depicts this wave
very well. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between
40W-47W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N
southward, is moving W at 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure center
is along the wave axis near 13N74W. Another low pressure center is
located in the wave's environment near 16N72W. These features are
enhancing convection south of 20N between 67W-77W.

A tropical wave is over Central America with axis along 84W from
17N southward, moving W 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
across the northern portion of the wave affecting Nicaragua and
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N16W to
07N28W to 11N46W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave along 44W, scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Imelda is centered over east Texas, enhancing
convection across the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of 26N
and west of 90W. To the east, a cold front extends from 24N80W to
30N87W. No significant convection is related to this front at this
time. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds north
of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin.

Expect for the front to dissipate through the night. High
pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf waters
through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
eastern Gulf tonight through Sat night supporting fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas to 8 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 18N68W, about 45 nm to the
SE of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Numerous strong
rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle.

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
27N76W, across the western half of Cuba, into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, toward the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 15N to 18N between 80W and Belize.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from N sections of
Colombia beyond the southern sections of Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are in the central sections of Panama.

Hurricane Jerry will approach the northeast Caribbean this
weekend, moving to 18.4N 57.9W Fri morning, 19.5N 60.8W Fri
afternoon, 20.7N 63.6W Sat morning, 21.9N 65.8W Sat afternoon, and
24.9N 68.7W Sun afternoon. The elongated area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave is west of Haiti will continue
producing showers and thunderstorms across the central and west
Caribbean. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves slowly west-
northwestward at about 5 kt. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles
during the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Jerry and Hurricane Humberto.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N61W to
25N72W to 24N80W. A surface trough is analyzed near the front
extending from 23N72W to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted along
the front and trough. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near
29N36W.

Hurricane Humberto is expected to become a powerful extratropical
cyclone well east of Nova Scotia. Large swell generated by
Humberto will continue propagating south and impacting Atlantic
waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Meanwhile,
Jerry will move to 18.4N 57.9W Fri morning, 19.5N 60.8W Fri
afternoon, 20.7N 63.6W Sat morning, 21.9N 65.8W Sat afternoon, and
24.9N 68.7W Sun afternoon. Jerry will change little in intensity
as it turns northward well east of the Bahamas Sunday.

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net