[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 191753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY GETTING STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 55.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located by
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2
North, longitude 55.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a
similar forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday and be east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry could strengthen during the next day
before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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