[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 191454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
day before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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