[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 35.2N 62.2W at 19/0900 UTC or
215 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 100 nm in the NW
quadrant and 300 nm in the NE quadrant. A trough extends from
just SW of Humberto through 22N78W, in northern Cuba, to 35N58W
with scattered moderate and isolated convection within 75 nm on
either side of the trough. Humberto is expected to continue to
move NE today, followed by a north-northeastward motion at a
slower forward speed Thursday night and Friday. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away
from Bermuda. The hurricane should start to weaken today, and it
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 16.0N 53.2W at 19/0900 UTC
or 510 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 90 nm in the E semicircle, 100 nm in the SW
quadrant, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. An additional band of
scattered moderate to strong convection is within 250 nm in the
NW quadrant of Jerry. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane
later today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday
or Saturday. A WNW motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands
Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Imelda is centered near 31.3N 95.5W at
19/0900 UTC or 96 nm N of Houston, Texas moving NNW at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection continues to linger across the Upper Texas
Coast, with some activity reaching the NW Gulf from 28N-31N
between 92W-95W. Imelda will move slowly north- northwest while
continuing to deliver heavy rainfall to the Upper Texas coast and
SW Louisiana. This may produce significant to life threatening
flash floods. See latest the Weather Prediction Center
forecast/advisory under WMO headers WTNT31 KWNH or
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 44W S of 19N
is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the
wave from 04N-16N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 72W S of 20N
is moving W at 10 kt. A 1007 mb low is along this wave axis near
13N72W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N- 17N
between 69W-72W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 82W S of 17N
is moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted in the northern portion of the wave from 15N-
18N between 80W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 08N28W to 14N47W. The ITCZ extends from SW of Tropical
Storm Jerry near 13N56W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the
monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N- 14N between 21W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Depression Imelda located inland over Texas.

A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf from 26N84W to
the western Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. Scattered thunderstorms
are along this trough from 25N-30N between 85W-87W. Otherwise,
ridging dominates the rest of the basin with a 1014 mb high
analyzed near 28N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle winds across most of the basin with moderate
northeasterly winds in the SE Gulf and moderate southerly winds in
the NW Gulf.

High pressure over the north central Gulf will dissipate today as
a weak cold front moves across the eastern Gulf, then stall over
the southeast Gulf by late Friday, before dissipating Saturday
into Sunday. High pressure will persist in the wake of the front
from the Carolinas to Texas into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted near the SE Cuban coast moving
into adjacent waters in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is seen in the SW basin, S of 13N
between 73W-79W. Scattered showers continue over and south of
Puerto Rico with the rest of the eastern Caribbean remaining dry.
Radar and satellite indicates that a 1008 mb low is located in the
Mona Passage near 18N68W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle winds across the basin.

A few showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern
Caribbean over the next couple of days, east of weak low pressure
over the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A cold front is currently sweeping across the western and central
Atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Humberto. The cold front
extends from 32N64W to 26N74W to South Florida near 26N80W.
Showers are seen along the front, mainly in the central Atlantic.
A trough is analyzed near the central Atlantic from 19N58W to
26N57W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are near this feature,
from 23N-29N between 54W-57W. Another cold front enters the
discussion area in the eastern Atlantic near 31N20W and stretches
westward to 28N33W. The front stalls near 28N33W and extends
southwestward to 29N45W to 24N54W. Light showers are along the
boundary. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE
winds in the western Atlantic.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the wake of the trough
associated with Humberto, and ahead of any potential impacts from
Jerry.


$$
AKR
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