[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 34.7N 63.0W at 19/0600 UTC or
195 nm NNE of Bermuda moving NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the S
semicircle, 160 nm in the NW quadrant, and 200 nm in the NE
quadrant. A trough extends from just SW of Humberto through
22N73W, near the Turks and Caicos Islands, to 31N62W with
scattered moderate and isolated convection within 120 nm SE of the
trough. Humberto is expected to continue to move NE through
Thursday, followed by a north- northeastward motion at a slower
forward speed Thursday night and Friday. A turn toward the east-
northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away from
Bermuda tonight. The hurricane should start to weaken later
tonight, and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 15.7N 52.5W at 19/0600 UTC
or 540 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 80 nm in the E semicircle, 100 nm in the SW
quadrant, and 80 nm in the NW quadrant. An additional band of
scattered moderate to strong convection is between 150 and 200 nm
in the NW quadrant of Jerry. Jerry is forecast to become a
hurricane later today, with little change in strength anticipated
on Friday or Saturday. A west-northwest motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Imelda is centered near 31.2N 94.9W at
19/0300 UTC or 95 nm NNE of Houston Texas moving N at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection continues to linger across the Upper Texas
Coast, with some activity reaching the NW Gulf from 28N-30N
between 92W-95W. Imelda should continue to move slowly northwest
with only a slight acceleration late on Thursday. Little change in
strength is forecast through the day on Thursday before weakening
Thursday night and eventually dissipating on Friday. Imelda will
continue to deliver heavy rainfall to the Upper Texas coast and SW
Louisiana, which may produce significant to life threatening
flash floods. See latest the Weather Prediction Center
forecast/advisory under WMO headers WTNT31 KWNH for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 42W S of 19N
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N-15N between 43W-45W, and from 09N-13N between 37W- 41W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 72W S of 20N
is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 13N-19N N of 13N
between 65W- 71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 81W S of 16N
is moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted in the northern portion of the wave from
15N-18N between 81W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 08N29W to 11N45W. The ITCZ extends from SW of Tropical Storm
Jerry near 12N52W to 10N61W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 02N-09N
between 28W-42W. Scattered thunderstorms are south of the ITCZ
from 08N- 11N between 47W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Depression Imelda located inland over Texas.

Scattered thunderstorms are seen off the coast of Florida from
26N-29N between 83W-86W with a trough analyzed from 25N82W to
28N83. Otherwise, ridging dominates the rest of the basin with a
1015 mb high analyzed near 28N88W. The latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin with
moderate northeasterly winds in the SE Gulf and moderate southerly
winds in the NW Gulf.

Tropical Depression Imelda is will continue to produce showers
and thunderstorms off the upper Texas coast. Imelda is forecast
to continue drifting north and dissipate over northeast Texas
Friday. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf
waters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail much of the period, with winds
becoming fresh to strong over the northeastern Gulf Thursday
night into early Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A trough is analyzed from 20N77W to 19N86W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is seen near this trough from 17N-21N between
75W-85W. Showers are seen moving along and south of Puerto Rico in
the eastern Caribbean. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the
SW Caribbean, S of 10N between 75W-80W. Latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across the basin.

Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere over the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front extends along the western Atlantic from 31N76W
to the extreme NE Florida coast near 31N81W. Showers are seen
along this front. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic
from 17N55W to 24N57W with scattered thunderstorms seen within 150
nm on either side of the trough. A stationary front enters the
forecast area near 31N22W and stretches SW to 28N38W to 23N53W.
Showers are also seen long this boundary. Two surface high
pressures are analyzed, a 1022 mb high near 30N36W and a 1021 mb
near 28N29W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
NE winds in the western Atlantic.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the wake of the trough
associated with Humberto, and ahead of any potential impacts from
Jerry.


$$
AKR
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