[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 33.4N 65.0W at 18/0000 UTC
or 70 nm N of Bermuda moving ENE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 120 nm in the S semicircle, 180 nm in the NW quadrant,
and 420 nm in the NE quadrant. A trough extends from just SW of
Humberto through 32N62W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands with
scattered moderate and isolated convection within 120 nm SE of the
trough. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is expected
to pass just to the NW and N of Bermuda later tonight. Humberto
should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday, then a
steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 15.2N 51.2W at 18/0000 UTC
or 620 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 75 nm in the E semicircle, 120 nm in
the SW quadrant, and 60 nm in the NW quadrant. An additional band
of scattered moderate to strong convection is between 60 and 180
nm in the NW quadrant of Jerry, as well as another far outer band
between 270 and 420 nm in the SE quadrant, and between 300 nm and
480 nm in the SW quadrant. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane
on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday
or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be
near or N of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass N of
Puerto Rico on Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Imelda is centered near 30.8N 95.0W at
18/2100 UTC or 70 nm NNE of Houston Texas moving N at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Significant rainfall will
continue to be possible with life threatening flash floods from
the upper Texas coast into eastern Texas, as well as portions of
SW Louisiana. Scattered moderate to strong convection also extends
across the eastern Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters into the
offshore waters N of 27N between 91W and 95W. Imelda will
gradually decrease in speed this evening and then make a gradual
turn towards the NW. Little change in strength is forecast
overnight before a gradual weakening trend begins. See latest WPC
forecast/advisory under WMO headers WTNT31 KWNH for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 40W S of 19N
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 13N-15N between 36W-39W, and from 03N-07N between 38W-41W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave was relocated slightly to the E
with an axis along 71W from the central Dominican Republic to NW
Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is N of 13N between 65W-71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 81W S of 18N
is moving W at around 5 kt. Limited convection is present with
this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to
08N27W to 16N40W. The ITCZ extends from SW of Tropical Storm Jerry
near 11N53W to 10N62W. No significant convection is noted outside
of the tropical wave and Tropical Storm Jerry mentioned above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Depression Imelda located inland over Texas.

Otherwise, the basin is fairly quiet with 1017 mb high pressure
located in the NE Gulf near 27N81W. Broad ridging extends WSW from
the high to the NE coast of Mexico, and eastward toward Tampa
Bay, Florida. A weak surface trough was analyzed over the S
central Gulf near 23N91W to the western Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail much of the period, with winds becoming fresh to
strong over the northeastern Gulf Thu night into early Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A weak surface trough was noted in earlier scatterometer sampling
and visible satellite imagery from near 17N75W to 13N73W with
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the trough.
Additional scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was
SW of the trough from S of 13N to the Coast of Colombia and
Panama between 78W-78W. Another surface trough was noted from
central Cuba to just NW of the Cayman Islands near 19N84W. Drier
and more stable air was noted behind the trough with thunderstorm
development ahead of it over land areas.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere over the
Caribbean through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Jerry.

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from N of the area through 32N22W
to 29N31W, continuing as stationary to 28N45W to 23N52W. No
significant convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Weak
and broad 1018 mb high pressure is located N of the front near
30N37W.

A surface trough is located NE of the Caribbean from 24N58W to
17N56W with limited convection in the vicinity. Little significant
impact is noted with this trough. Another surface trough extends
from SE of Hurricane Humberto to across the central and SE Bahamas
to central Cuba and associated convection is discussed above.
Moderate to fresh, locally strong, NE flow follows the trough in
the offshore waters.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the wake of this trough,
and ahead of any potential impacts from Jerry.

$$
Lewitsky
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