[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 170845
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The cloud pattern continues to be rather impressive, but the eye
is ragged looking and less defined than a few hours ago. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed significantly and
support an initial intensity of 80 kt.  Another reconnaissance plane
will check the hurricane's structure in the morning.

Humberto is expected to continue to moving over warm waters for
the next few days, and intensity guidance as well as global models
strengthen the hurricane a little more. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about
24 to 36 hours. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
be hostile, resulting in weakening.  By day 5, if not sooner, the
cyclone should become embedded within a frontal zone and begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics at that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that the initial motion continues toward
the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 7 kt. Humberto is well embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion with
a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast
for the next 5 days.  Track models are in good agreement with this
solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance
envelope. It is also very similar to the previous official
forecast.

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the
core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda.  Interests should not
focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the
right could bring the center near or over the island.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by Wednesday and
will be affecting portions of the northwestern Bahamas and
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by your local
weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional
information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 30.6N  74.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 31.6N  70.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 32.5N  68.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 34.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 38.0N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 42.0N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 44.0N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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