[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough extends from 27N70W to the SE Bahamas near 22N74W
to Jamaica near 18N77W. Scattered to isolated strong convection is
from 21N-25N between 68W-75W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere within 120 nm of the trough axis. Upper level
diffluence is also over the W Atlantic N of 23N between 65W-75W.
Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development
late this week, and a tropical depression could form near the
northwestern Bahamas or South Florida as early as Friday. Further
development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this
weekend. The disturbance will likely produce periods of locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday,
and across Florida during the weekend. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, passing
through the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N southward. The tropical
wave is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N-15N between 24W-29W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
also from 04N-08N between 21W-28W. This wave is forecast to move
quickly westward during the next several days. Environmental
conditions may become more favorable for development as the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles from late this weekend into early
next week.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-
15N between 32W-41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center is embedded on
the wave axis near 14N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis. The system is forecast to move westward where
upper-level winds will become even less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 10N27W to
11N43W to 13N52W to 13N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned
in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-14N
between 13W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to
18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave
axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico
has 10-15 kt easterly winds. Of note in the upper levels, a small
upper level low is centered over the W Gulf near 23N98W. Upper
level diffluence is over the NW Gulf with scattered moderate
convection from 24N-28N between 90W-97W.

High pressure centered N of the basin will support moderate to
fresh NE to E winds into the weekend. Weak low pressure in the
vicinity of the Bay of Campeche will remain nearly stationary. A
trough of low pressure, possibly as a tropical cyclone, will move
W from Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into
early next week, accompanied by widespread showers, thunderstorms,
gusty winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.

The tail end of a surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas near
22N74W to Jamaica near 18N77W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over E Cuba and Jamaica. Similar convection is
within 60 nm S of the coast of W Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama due to the
eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure centered N of the region will maintain moderate
trades, that will at times pulse to fresh to strong in the S
central Caribbean. A tropical wave will cross from the central
Caribbean to the western Caribbean Fri. A strong tropical wave
will approach the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean over
the weekend into early next week. This feature will also bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and building
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For information on the surface trough currently over the Bahamas,
see the Special Features section above.

Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 28N49W to
20N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the trough axis. In the far E Atlantic, northerly strong to near
gale force winds are expected off the coast of Morocco through
Thu.

Further more, in the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered near 21N56W enhancing convection.

$$
Formosa
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