[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 10/0300 UTC, is near
42.1N 43.1W. Gabrielle is moving NE, or 55 degrees, 21 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
42N to 48N between 40W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
or the website hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are within 240 nm off the coast of Senegal from 13N to
15N. The wave is expected to move westward quickly during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible late this
week, and during the weekend, when the system is several hundred
miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 20N
southward, moving W 15 knots. A 1011 mb low is along the wave
near 14N. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the next few days, before upper level winds become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move
generally westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea, along 61W/62W,
from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 16N northward from 76W westward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W, from 21N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in
eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico
near the border with Guatemala, and at the coast on the eastern
side of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
inland elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula, and in Central America
between 87W and 92W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N23W, to 13N37W, to the 1011 mb low pressure
center that is along the 44W/45W tropical wave, to 11N49W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N49W, to 08N54W, and to coastal sections of
Guyana. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within
180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the line that runs from 06N10W
to 08N20W to 12N27W and 12N40W, and elsewhere from 10N southward
between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Mexico and
Texas, and the Gulf of Mexico from 20N northward between 93W and
103W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from
86W westward.

A surface ridge will prevail just N of the basin through the
week. The ridge will maintain gentle to moderate easterly wind
flow, except pulsing to fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center,
that is about 75 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, southwestward, to
15N70W and 11N80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 70W
eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W, 07N80W, along the coast of
Central America from Panama to Costa Rica, beyond 11N87W and into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Warming cloud top temperatures, and
remnant convective debris from earlier precipitation, cover
northern sections of Colombia. Scattered strong rainshowers are
inland, near 08N76W, and elsewhere in Colombia from 06N to 08N
between 76W and 79W.

A surface ridge will prevail N-NE of the basin through the week.
The ridge will maintain moderate trade winds, except pulsing to
fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean Sea. It is possible
that a strong tropical wave may approach the tropical N Atlantic
Ocean by the end of the upcoming weekend with gusty winds and
squalls.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N75W, about
125 nm to the NE of the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and
Hispaniola northward, across the Bahamas to 32N, between 70W and
Florida. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the areas that are from 20N to 25N between 66W and the
Straits of Florida, and in the easternmost parts of the Gulf of
Mexico along the Florida west coast.

An upper level trough passes through 32N50W to 24N57W, toward the
upper level cyclonic circulation center that is about 75 nm to
the NE of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N
northward between 45W and 65W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N31W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 18N northward between Africa and 45W. A surface trough is
along 23N66W, to the central sections of the Dominican Republic,
to 17N74W in the Caribbean Sea. Little, if any, development of this
weather system is expected during the next few days, while it
moves WNW across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. It is
possible that environmental conditions may become a little more
conducive for development when the system moves into the Gulf of
Mexico during the weekend. This disturbance will produce periods
of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, across the Bahamas
through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into
the weekend.

The trough that is to the NW-N of Puerto Rico will track WNW
across the area during the week, reaching Florida late in the
week. The trough will be accompanied by scattered to numerous
rainshowers and thunder. Relatively weak high pressure elsewhere
across the area will move northward gradually through the week.

$$
MT
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