[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, at 09/0900 UTC, is near
37.7N 48.5W. Gabrielle is moving NNE, or 015 degrees, 14 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 36N to
40N between 48W and 50W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or the
website hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 11W and 17W, and from 10N
to 14N between land and 22W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 20N southward between Africa and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 20N
southward, moving W 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is
along the wave near 14N. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next few days, before upper level winds
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is
expected to move generally westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean during the next several days. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 37W and
45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 08N to 11N between 57W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from the western
part of Jamaica southward, moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 16N to 20N between 74W and 80W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 21N southward,
moving W 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 80W
westward, including in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of El Salvador, and
within 90 nm to the south of El Salvador in the eastern Pacific
Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
13N17W, to 11N24W, to the 1012 mb low pressure center that is
along the 41W/42W tropical wave, to 10N46W and 09N49W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 420 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 30W and
the 41W/42W tropical wave. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 27W and
30W, and from 06N to 13N between 46W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is along
the coast of Texas, in the Deep South. Cyclonic wind flow covers
the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Mexico from 19N northward between
90W and 105W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers span the Gulf of Mexico.

Relatively weak high pressure will continue just to the north of
the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight, maintaining gentle to
moderate easterly wind flow throughout. Stronger high pressure
will begin to build into the area from the northeast, across
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico fro Tuesday through Friday.
This will allow for fresh northeast to east winds to exist in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including the Straits of Florida, and
in most of the central Gulf of Mexico. Northeast winds will pulse
to fresh speeds, to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening during the period,after pulsing to fresh to strong
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 33N52W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 24N60W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is
in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, to
13N70W. A surface trough is along 24N66W to 22N66W to 20N65W.
Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W.

A surface ridge will remain to the N and NE of the basin through
the week. The ridge will maintain moderate trade winds, except
pulsing to fresh to strong speeds in the S central Caribbean Sea,
and near the coast of Colombia beginning this evening. A tropical
wave near 58W south of 15N will move across the rest of the
Tropical N Atlantic Ocean by early this evening, then across the
eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through Wednesday, and the central
Caribbean Sea on Thursday and Thursday night. Scattered rainshowers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected with this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 33N52W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 24N60W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is
in the Caribbean Sea about 60 nm to the south of Puerto Rico, to
13N70W. A surface trough is along 24N66W to 22N66W to 20N65W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface trough is along 30N40W, 26N42W, 22N42W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 40W and 50W.

An upper level trough extends from a 36N11W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 27N29W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N38W.
Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds,
that are from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

A surface-to-low level trough will move WNW across the area
during the week, reaching Florida late in the week. The trough
will be accompanied by scattered to numerous rainshowers and
thunderstorms. Relatively weak high pressure, elsewhere across the
area, will move northward gradually through the week.

$$
MT
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