[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is centered near 46.3N 62.1W at
08/0300 UTC, or 50 nm S of Madgalen Islands, moving NNE at 23 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous showers are
moving across eastern Canada. Dorian will continue moving
generally NE for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the
east- northeast is expected. On this track, Dorian will be moving
near or over western Newfoundland on Sunday and then enter the
North Atlantic late Sunday. The post-tropical cyclone
is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is
forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 32.0N 48.0W at 08/0300
UTC or 1090 nm WSW of the Azores moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is north and west of the center, from 27N-36N between 46W-54W.
The storm is forecast to recurve over the central Atlantic during
the next day or two and then accelerate northeastward into the
north Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days. Gabrielle is forecast to become an
extratropical low and begin weakening on Tuesday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
the website hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 15W S of 20N,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the
vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W S of
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is embedded in
the wave environment centered near 14N33W. Scattered showers are
noted north and west of the low from 14N-18N between 32W-36W.
Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours with this system is low.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W S of 15N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm
on either side of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W S of
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
northern portion of the wave, mostly impacting Hispaniola and
adjacent waters.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 80W
S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the southern portion of the wave, mostly impacting Central America
and the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/The Gambia
near 14N16W to the low pressure mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section above near 14N33W to 09N42W. The ITCZ begins near 09N42W
to 08N51W then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N53W to
08N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 07N-
10N between 42W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches across the eastern Gulf from the west
coast of Florida near 26N82W to 25N91W. A few showers are along
the vicinity of the boundary. In the Bay of Campeche, another
surface trough is analyzed from 21N92W to 18N93W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the trough. High pressure is
building across the far western Gulf, anchored by a 1016 mb high
centered near 29N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light
winds across the basin.

The frontal trough across the eastern Gulf will dissipate through
tonight. Weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf through
next week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds expected, except
occasionally fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper-level low is meandering into the eastern Caribbean. This
is causing scattered showers to move across the Lesser Antilles.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Haiti and moving
westward into the Caribbean, from 17N-20N between 72W-78W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the SW basin from
the monsoon trough, S of 10N between 73W-82W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate trades in the central and
southeast Caribbean, with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through next week.
Winds in the south central Caribbean will increase slightly Monday
through Thursday. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
three tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1017 mb surface high is near 27N70W. A surface trough extends
across the central Atlantic from 22N63W to 16N55W with scattered
showers and thunderstorms occurring along the trough. Surface
ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic.

A well defined trough will move from SE to NW across the basin by
the end of next week. Otherwise, broad high pressure and more
tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the upcoming week.

$$

ERA
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