[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 080233
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near
Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the
powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the
north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island.  The
wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing
tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian
Maritimes.  The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a
large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast
by most of the global models.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast
extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to
the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days.
Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the
NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope.

The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare
this forecast.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge
impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence,
southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.  Hurricane-force
winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur
in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian
Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 46.3N  62.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/0000Z 52.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1200Z 54.5N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0000Z 56.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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