[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
726 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Dorian, centered near 43.9N 63.9W at 07/2100, UTC has
transitioned into a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. It is
located about 40 nm SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia and 150 nm ESE of
Eastport, Maine moving NE at 25 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 953 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous showers are moving across eastern
Canada. Dorian will continue moving generally NE for the next 24
hours. After that, a turn toward the east- northeast is expected.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should cross the coast
of Nova Scotia near Halifax during the next few hours, then move
across eastern Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence near
Prince Edward Island tonight. The center should then pass near or
over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or
Sunday morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below
hurricane strength by Sunday morning. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or
the website hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 31.9N 46.5W at 07/2100
UTC or 1000 nm WSW of the Azores and moving WNW at 15 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb and maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is north and west of the center, from 27N-36N
between 46W-54W. The storm is forecast to recurve over the
central Atlantic during the next day or two and then accelerate
northeastward into the north Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Gabrielle is forecast to become an extratropical low and begin
weakening on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 15W S of 20N,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-
16W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W S of
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is embedded in
the wave environment centered near 14N31W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted north and west of the low from
14N- 18N between 27W- 36W. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours with this system is low.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W S of 15N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W S of
19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted along the northern portion of the wave, mostly impacting
the Dominican Republic.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W
S of 18N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along the northern portion of the wave, mostly impacting
Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/The Gambia
near 13N17W to the low pressure mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section above near 14N31W to 09N49W. The ITCZ begins near 08N52W
and extends to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N-14N between
18W-47W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also moving across
the ITCZ from 07N-09N between 52W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough stretches across the eastern Gulf from the west coast of
Florida near 26N82W to 26N89W. A few showers are along the
vicinity of the boundary. In the Bay of Campeche, a trough is
analyzed from 18N92W to 24N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection can be seen from 22N-26N between 92W-96W. Some
thunderstorms are occurring along the Yucatan and reaching
adjacent waters, mostly E of 93W. High pressure is building
across the far western Gulf, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered
near 29N94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light winds across
the basin.

A frontal trough extending from near Naples, Florida to the
central Gulf will dissipate through tonight. Weak high pressure
will persist across the Gulf through next week, with mainly gentle
to moderate winds expected, except occasionally fresh near the
Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level low is meandering into the eastern Caribbean. This
is causing scattered thunderstorms to move across the Lesser
Antilles through Puerto Rico. Numerous strong convection is
occurring over Haiti and moving westward into the Caribbean, fro
17N-20N between 71W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is also
seen in the SW basin from the monsoon trough, S of 11N between
73W-82W. Some isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of
Honduras. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trades in
the central and southeast Caribbean, with light to gentle trades
elsewhere.

Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through next week.
Winds in the south central Caribbean will increase slightly Monday
through Thursday. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the Atlantic waters near 31N65W and stretches
westward to 29N71W. Scattered showers are noted along this
boundary. A 1017 mb surface high is near 26N71W. A surface trough
extends into the central Atlantic from 31N56W to 26N63W with
scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring along the trough
from 26N-30N between 57W-62W. Another trough is in the central
Atlantic from 16N55W to 24N64W with a 1013 mb low near 20N61W
along the trough. It is about 179 nm from the northern portions of
the Lesser Antilles. This trough is producing scattered moderate
convection 18N-24N between 51W-62W. Surface ridging prevails
across the eastern Atlantic.

A well defined trough will move from SE to NW across the basin by
the end of next week. Otherwise, broad high pressure and more
tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the upcoming week.

$$
AKR
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